5 Big Questions About Milwaukee Bucks 2023 NBA Playoffs Run

As the Milwaukee Bucks are taking the week off between the end of the regular season and the start of their first-round playoff series, I’ll also take some time to prepare.

Milwaukee is looking to win their second NBA championship in three years and is on the shortlist of legitimate contenders. Whether they accomplish their ultimate task depends on the answers to these five questions.

Will they get healthy?

This has been the theme from training camp right into the beginning of the playoffs. And we aren’t any closer to an answer.

Khris Middleton could not find full health all season despite not making his season debut until December 2nd. He had a couple of return stints that led to setbacks, his most recent one coming on April 5th when he landed awkwardly on his right knee (the opposite one he hurt last postseason) following a fadeaway baseline jumper on the Bucks’ first possession of the game.

Shams Charania of The Athletic reported that Middleton’s MRI was clean, and he would use the week off to rehab his knee. Milwaukee’s hope is he’ll be ready next Sunday when the Bucks tip-off the first round, but how effective can he be?

Middleton is the biggest concern, but other rotational players have new or lingering injuries. Grayson Allen sprained his ankle on April 2nd and hasn’t played since. Mike Budenholzer said he’d have a chance to play in Game 1 if everything goes well. Pat Connaughton also sprained his ankle on April 4th and didn’t play in the season’s last three games. There hasn’t been an update since.

Giannis Antetokounmpo also missed last Wednesday’s game against the Chicago Bulls with knee soreness after going through an abbreviated pre-game warmup. Milwaukee still had the no. 1 seed on the line and had just played the night before. He didn’t play the final two games after Milwaukee locked up the best record.

The good news is Joe Ingles and Jae Crowder look good to go. They will be critical pieces to the Bucks’ postseason rotation. We’ll have to wait and see with the others mentioned. Milwaukee can take the first round and probably even the semi-finals without Middleton, Allen and Connaughton at full strength. However, if they want to accomplish their primary goal of winning another championship, they’ll need all hands on deck.

Will they finally be able to make threes in the playoffs?

The Bucks have been an above-average three-point shooting team during the Budenholzer era, especially the last three years when they finished sixth, eighth, and ninth in three-point shooting percentage, according to Cleaning the Glass. Spacing is crucial to their offense. They want to give Antetokounmpo, Middleton and Jrue Holiday maximum room to work around the basket.

However, they’ve undergone a strange transformation in the last three postseasons: They forgot entirely how to shoot.

Defense ramps up in the playoffs, and you’re playing the best teams every night, so some drop-off is to be expected. That still doesn’t explain what has happened to Milwaukee. Their three-point shooting percentage dropped nearly six points the year they won the Finals and almost three percentage points last year. Let’s not forget their 2019 Eastern Conference Finals meltdown, where they only made 31 percent of their outside attempts.

With the likes of Allen (40%), Ingles (41%), Crowder (44%), Holiday (39%), Bobby Portis (37%), Brook Lopez (37%), and Jevon Carter (43%) littering the rotation, they have more quality options than ever before.

How will their halfcourt offense fare?

Milwaukee’s halfcourt offense has been abysmal in the postseason, and that’s being kind. They ranked in the top six in halfcourt points per play in each of the past four regular seasons, according to Cleaning the Glass, and rank 12th this year. It’s safe to say that success has yet to carry over to the postseason.

Among 20 teams that qualified for the playoffs and the play-in tournament in 2022, Milwaukee’s offense ranked 20th (aka dead last) in halfcourt efficiency. Part of that had to do with the loss of Middleton and the opponent in the Boston Celtics, but the Bucks did themselves no favors.

Ingles was brought in to be a part of this solution. He has a great connection with Lopez and the two have a mean pick-and-roll game. When he’s on the court, the Bucks’ halfcourt efficiency jumps from 99.6 to 105.1 (the Dallas Mavericks had the best halfcourt offense in the NBA this season at 105.0).

Who will start and close games?

General manager Jon Horst gets a lot of credit for assembling a roster with nearly endless possible lineup combinations. Milwaukee has the ability to match up with any team in the NBA and play their brand of basketball.

Want to go small? The Bucks can put Antetokounmpo at center and surround him with Crowder, Middleton, Holiday and others. Jumbo time? A frontcourt of Lopez, Portis and Antetokounmpo brings a lot of skill and size. In total, at least 11 players have a strong case to be a part of their playoff rotation. Budenholzer will have to determine the right combination, and it will change series by series or even game by game.

Is this their last best chance?

That may be a bit premature, considering Antetokounmpo is only 28-years-old. However, this question is about his supporting cast.

Milwaukee is aging quickly. Wesley Matthews (36), Ingles (35), Lopez (35), Crowder (32), Holiday (32), Middleton (31) make up six of the aforementioned 11 rotational players who should see time this postseason. How much more do they have left in the tank after this run?

Furthermore, the Bucks’ roster continues to get more expensive with several players hitting free agency this summer. Lopez, Crowder, Ingles, Matthews, Goran Dragic, Thanasis Antetokounmpo, and Meyers Leonard are unrestricted free agents. Middleton has a player option. Jevon Carter will likely opt out of his player option. How many players will the Bucks be able or willing to keep?