3 Reasons Why Gennadiy Golovkin Will Beat Canelo Alvarez

Gennaidy Golovkin will surely beat Canelo Alvarez when the pair meets for the third time on Saturday night in Las Vegas for Alvarez’s undisputed super middleweight championship. Of that, I can be sure—unless, of course, you read something that says the exact opposite.

Golovkin is the +400 underdog, and there’s a good reason for that. He lost a close fight the second time these two met, when he was in his mid-30s, and now, four years later, Golovkin is 40 years old. Yes, he probably should have been awarded the first fight (it was ruled a controversial draw) and he gave a good account of himself in the second fight, but not many observers are expecting him to win in the finale of their trilogy.

Make no mistake, though. Golovkin will find an improbable way to win against his biggest rival and perhaps end his career with the most important victory of all. Here are three reasons why.

1) Alvarez will be fighting under a heavy pressure that Golovkin won’t be feeling: When I talked to Golovkin a few weeks ago, he joked that he actually retired during the pandemic and that now he was simply fooling around in the ring. He was kidding, but there probably is some truth to that. Golovkin is almost assuredly a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and he knows not many people are expecting him to pull off the upset. Meanwhile, Alvarez is coming off his first loss in nine years, and he must be aware that if he were to fall to his most hated rival, people will begin to question if Alvarez, at the youngish age of 32, is already on the backside of his career. A loss won’t necessarily hurt Alvarez’s global box office appeal, but it won’t help him either. Some silly observers might begin to question his greatness, and maybe that’ll seep into Alvarez’s mindset as well. Another loss won’t tarnish Golovkin’s legacy. But it might hurt Alvarez’s. And Alvarez has to know that.

2) Alvarez will try to KO Golovkin, and Golovkin will take advantage: Alvarez has already beaten Golovkin by decision, and this time, Alvarez is going to try to stop him. Golovkin’s punch resistance in his past couple fights has been a little shaky, especially to the body, and his defense isn’t as good as it once was. Alvarez has had a heated rivalry with Golovkin—Alvarez was infuriated when Golovkin ripped him for his positive drug tests that led to the postponement of their second meeting—and as he told me recently, “My goal is to end his career.” But an overly aggressive Alvarez will open himself up to Golovkin’s counter-punches, and as Ryota Murata found out in April, Golovkin still has plenty of punching power. Alvarez, of course, has a world-class chin, and Golovkin hasn’t seriously hurt him in the previous 24 rounds they’ve fought. But it only takes one flush Golovkin punch to the chin to change all of that.

3) Going up and down in weight will only work for so long for Alvarez: I asked Alvarez if he was worried about losing seven pounds after his last performance against Bivol, and he assured me that he wasn’t. At some point, though, it becomes harder and harder for an elite athlete to yo-yo in weight like that. Alvarez clearly didn’t have his usual energy against Bivol, and you have to wonder if it’s because he’s fought in three different weight classes in his last seven fights. The last time he moved down to 168 from 175 came in 2020 when he dominated Callum Smith but ultimately couldn’t knock him out. With Alvarez making that move again, you have to wonder if Alvarez will struggle against Golovkin, who also happens to be a better, more dangerous opponent than Smith.

For what it’s worth, I’m not alone in thinking Golovkin can pull off the upset.

“I think GGG is going to have an amazing fight someway, somehow,” Ryan Garcia told DAZN during the summer. “Obviously, there’s Canelo, but I just have a sense that GGG is going to have a performance of a lifetime.”

All of which means Golovkin certainly will win. Unless the EXACT OPPOSITE happens.