$29,000, The Iron Support – Trustnodes

Bitcoin has been sidewaying around $29,000 – $30,000 for almost a month now since around May the 10th.

Bears have tried and tried to break it, without much success so far. Will that change?

For the first time since these levels have been reached, $29,000 has not been a spring to quickly bounce off, but a ‘park’ to walk around and see about. A floor for now.

The market does not quite know which way bitcoin will go, and therefore bitcoin is not going anywhere.

One direction would be $40,000 or $45,000. A relief bounce for the first time since March, but it might instead head for $25,000.

For now, it is more probable it actually heads nowhere. It’s all quiet after the panic of May, with that crash sobering the mood considerably.

But people are starting to kind of forget about it and adjust to the new reality, so it’s all comfyish for now. Too soon to bull, too mean to bear after that crash.

And so we stay put, maybe for months. Volumes will soon drop significantly because people will take to the beach as for another year school is out in a few weeks in some places, and about now in some others.

Markets tend to chill out during that period, so bitcoin may stay precisely where it is all the way to September.

It might move a bit up though, maybe $35,000, or a bit down, maybe $28,000, but still a fairly straight line.

We might even keep this line for a whole year, though if we really bear it can get brutal. But, bitcoin did alright-ish last cycle, keeping that $6,000 line on and on.

That’s because miners are now counter-cyclically utilizing their supply and reserves. They taking out the supply during bear, and adding it during bull, smoothening out the edges.

Bitcoin did then rek to $3,000, but there was a fork and hashwar that forced miners outside their comfort with the ‘system’ that was holding fine, sort of breaking down.

Eth did very badly last cycle because ICOs kept selling endlessly. There are no ICOs this time. Airdrops don’t concentrate eth. NFTs do, but they’re a small proportion of the crypto ecosystem and most NFT projects were capped to $10 million. Contrast with just EOS raising $4 billion in an ICO.

Without that pressure, the bear might not be as bad. Bitcoin might even stick to $30,000, although sidewaying here might well suggest it’s just trying to break down.

So a bottom for now and a summer to enjoy. Then an autumn to get through and find out just what sort of bottom. A winter buying opportunity perhaps. And then hopefully a sneakily slow rise with no one noticing until the next top.

Too predictable so it won’t happen? Well, the above won’t be what we say while in the actual bear, if there is one, so get some goldfish protector.

Other factors can change this of course, but if the Ropsten testnet merge is showing anything, people don’t seem to care much about it.

That’s what you get when you drag it on and on. This should have been the live launch, which would have then gone very smoothly, after months of testing it on the kiln testnet since March.

Instead they need some more months when clearly this seems finished, with the live upgrade in autumn when there might not be much bull sentiment left.

It’ll be perfect for the bear though to ra ra the unlock of 10 million eth. So it may even get as bad as in previous bears if we are bearing.

But, the change in issuance to potentially deflationary will have an effect, eventually. Just not during bear, if there is one.

Macro is probably more a sort of cherry on top. If crypto bearing and macro is bear, then macro did it. It probably contributes, but crypto has been bulling and bearing regardless of what macro has been doing, with it a sui jeneris.

Only factor that really can change it is if some L2 has excellent execution or takes off, or if the bitcoin devs announce they’re implementing pruning to scale the blockchain.

That may be the theme of the bull however, and so this is building time for the next cycle while bitcoin miners hopefully hold the line.