21DMA to give way – OCBC

The Euro (EUR) traded little changed overnight. Last seen at 1.1040 levels, OCBC FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

EUR/USD to trade below 1.1040

“Daily momentum is mild bearish while RSI fell. Support at 1.1040 (21 DMA), 1.10, 1.0930 (61.8% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low). Resistance at 1.12 (recent high) and 1.1280 (2023 high).”

“Slippage in CPIs out of Euroarea, Germany and Spain and softer mfg PMI print added to expectation that ECB may lower rate again at its upcoming meeting on 12 Sep. Markets have priced in nearly 25bp cut at this meeting and about 37bp cut for remainder of the year (another 1.5 cut).”

“Another series of underwhelming data print could move the needle for markets to price in a more dovish ECB and for the EURO to trade lower. This week, focus is on services PMI, PPI (Wed), retail sales (Thu) and GDP (Fri).”