21-DMA caps upside for now – OCBC

USD/SGD’s rebound post-NFP last Fri stumbled at 21-DMA, OCBC FX strategist Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Waiting for US CPI later this evening

“Broader decline in UST yields, USD and the JPY strength this morning saw USD/SGD eased lower. S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.91% above our model-implied mid, with model implied spot lower bound at 1.3010. With S$NEER close to its lower bound, the room for further downside in USD/SGD may be limited intra-day.”

“However, if broader USD takes another leg lower, then the implied lower bound of USD/SGD can be lower. Pair was last at 1.3025. Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI fell. Consolidation likely near recent lows as markets await FOMC decision next week.”

“Support at 1.30, 1.2953 (recent low). Resistance at 1.3065 (21-DMA), 1.3160 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low). We watch US CPI later this evening.”