Over the past half-decade, the NBA has seen a dramatic change in how the old power forward position has been utilized. It’s no longer big, sturdy 6’10 forwards who occupy the position, but instead former wings, such as Harrison Barnes and Tobias Harris, that have made the positional transition.
The change is due, in large part, to flexibility in terms of making plays with the ball. The old traditional power forward was mostly needed to be set up, whereas wings are more accustomed to making plays for themselves and others.
Even a former shooting guard like DeMar DeRozan played 81% of his minutes this season at the four. Just three seasons ago, that number was 4%, and he’s had five seasons of not playing the position at all.
The 2022 draft, however, is loaded with players of a new generation that seem to understand the added responsibilities of playing the position.
The return of the power forward
In the first round alone, six players are expected to get selected, who will slide into the power forward position at the NBA level. That number should even increase further when players, who are currently considered wings, will undergo the positional change as their team begin to understand how best to use them.
For now, though, our focus will be on the primary six players, and how they can begin to morph the position into something new.
Those players are Jabari Smith Jr (Auburn), Paolo Banchero (Duke), Keegan Murray (Iowa), Tari Eason (LSU), Nikola Jović (Mega Bemax), and E.J. Liddell (Ohio State).
Since the position got taken over by wings, the demand for true power forwards changed. You could no longer be as limited an archetype as before, which is why a player like Lauri Markkanen had very few suitors and a weak market during last year’s free agency.
Players who are big, but struggle to initiate offense for themselves and others, have essentially become dinosaurs. That’s why the above grouping of players have learned a valuable lesson: Flexibility is key.
That means, especially for Banchero, that he needed to find the best of both worlds. His size of 6’10 and 250 screams old-fashioned power forward, but his on-ball creation ability as well as his flair as a passer (3.2 assists) screams new-age forward. Lest we forget, size is still important in the game of basketball. Being able to attach the right set of skills to size is the crucial part.
Smith Jr, also 6’10, doesn’t have the on-ball capabilities of Banchero, and is far more perimeter oriented. He instead has a dangerous pull-up game, even expanding to behind the three-point line. That means he won’t need to have the table set for him, as he can dribble himself into jump shots, a crucial skill in today’s league, even for guards. Having a power forward of that size who can manufacture perimeter shots for himself is a major advantage.
Added responsibilities
The aforementioned Smith Jr is also expected to become a plus-defender, and that’s the next step to making the position more all-around oriented. Both Eason and Liddell have established themselves as impactful shot-blockers, with Eason even swiping 1.9 steals in 24.4 minutes. Neither are as offensively fluid as Banchero or Smith Jr, but they each hold their own, and have shown enough at the college level to be expected to produce at that position at the next level. Per 36 minutes, Eason averaged 25.0 points per game, and Liddell 21.1 which is at a volume where you won’t see either becoming solely defensively-oriented.
Of course, like any other position, players come in varying packages. If we’re looking at scoring upside, the 22-year-old Murray is the big name. The 6’8 forward averaged 23.5 points, hit 55.4% from the field – including 39.8% from the outside – and added in 8.7 rebounds, 1.9 blocks and 1.3 steals. Another major selling point for Murray? Despite the overwhelming offensive responsibility he had at Iowa, he turned the ball over just 1.1 times per game. Murray is hands-down the most polished scoring power forward in the draft, but has a multitude of other strengths to lean on during nights when his shooting may fail him.
The flexibility to lean into something else than your primary skill is a valuable one, as that allows a player to keep being on the court, as he isn’t just a one-trick pony.
For Jović, that too remains true. The 18-year-old Serbian is a raw talent, but projects to be capable of mostly everything. He can dribble like a wing, can initiate plays for himself and others, play like a proper big when he needs to, and he’s a floor spacer. His per-game averages of 12.0 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.6 assists in just over 28 minutes per game isn’t fair representation of the level he can reach due to age. At this point in his development, scouts are looking at skills, potential and versatility upside. In all those categories, Jović tests out well as a long-term project, who has considerable all-around potential. Whether that potential is realized is a different discussion.
The NBA is constantly changing, and positions are redefined due to the talent the league has, which forces coaches, scouts and general managers to constantly update themselves on new trends. For years, the power forward position has been filled by either top-tier all-around superstars like Giannis Antetokounmpo, who really can play at any position he wants, or wings who are moved up a slot.
With the talent injection at that position this year, we could see a revolution coming that better determines what is needed to be an effective power forward in today’s game.
Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/mortenjensen/2022/05/23/2022-nba-draft-marks-the-return-of-the-power-forward-position/