2022-23 Sixers May Be James Harden’s Best Remaining Chance At An NBA Title

When an NBA star reaches his mid-30s, Father Time becomes his most daunting opponent. That’s particularly true for players who are still seeking the validation that winning their first NBA championship would provide.

Such is the case for Philadelphia 76ers guard James Harden, who turns 34 in August and can become an unrestricted free agent this summer by declining his $35.6 million player option for the 2023-24 season. As rumors swirl about his potential interest in rejoining the Houston Rockets as a free agent this summer, this upcoming playoff run with the Sixers might wind up being his best remaining chance at winning a title.

Barring a draft-lottery miracle, Harden would likely be kissing his short-term championship chances goodbye if he signs with the Rockets in free agency. At 17-52, they currently boast the NBA’s second-worst record, ahead of only the 16-55 Detroit Pistons. The Rockets also have the league’s second-worst net rating (minus-8.1), ahead of only the 18-51 San Antonio Spurs.

The Rockets, Pistons and Spurs will likely enter lottery night with a 14 percent chance at landing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NBA draft. Whichever team wins that pick is almost certain to select French sensation Victor Wembanyama, who boasts a generational combination of size (7’4″) and skill. Adding him to this Rockets core alongside Harden could put Houston back into title contention relatively quickly.

If the Rockets slide during the lottery, though, adding Harden alone isn’t likely to vault them back into the championship picture. He’d help fix their 28th-ranked offense with his combination of scoring chops and passing vision, but he might only compound the issues with their 29th-ranked defense. The Rockets will likely have to spend most of their league-high $61.7 million in projected salary-cap space to lure Harden back to Houston, so they wouldn’t be able to afford much outside help to bolster their defense, either.

Even if the smoke around a Harden-Rockets reunion quiets down and Harden decides to re-sign with the Sixers instead, this year’s squad might boast the best supporting cast he’ll ever have in Philadelphia.

The Sixers already have $117.1 million committed to only seven players next year. The 2023-24 salary cap is currently projected to be $134 million, while the luxury-tax threshold is projected to be $162 million. If the Sixers re-sign Harden on a max deal ($46.9 million next season), they’ll already be above the projected tax line with only eight players under contract.

Harden isn’t the Sixers’ only free agent this summer, though. Georges Niang, Shake Milton and trade-deadline addition Jalen McDaniels are all set to be unrestricted free agents, while Paul Reed will be a restricted free agent. Danuel House Jr. and Montrezl Harrell can also become unrestricted free agents by declining their respective $4.3 million and $2.8 million player options, although neither would be tremendous losses if they walked.

The Sixers have full Bird rights on Milton, McDaniels and Reed, which means they can exceed the salary cap to re-sign them on any contract up to a max. They have Early Bird rights on Niang, which allows them to offer him 175 percent of his salary from this season ($3.5 million) or 105 percent of the league’s average salary, whichever is greater. (It’ll be the latter for Niang.)

In other words, the Sixers have the salary-cap exceptions they need to re-sign all of their notable free agents. However, it’s fair to wonder how far into the luxury tax they’re willing to go, as anything above $30-40 million over the tax line is prohibitively expensive under the current collective bargaining agreement.

The Sixers did push back the clock on the repeater tax by swapping Matisse Thybulle for McDaniels at the trade deadline, which pushed them below the tax line this season. That should help make their tax bill more manageable next season, which could better enable them to retain some combination of McDaniels, Milton, Reed and Niang. A new CBA could also change how the luxury-tax system works, which might provide the Sixers with some much-needed financial breathing room.

However, the Sixers won’t be in line to add much external help this summer if they re-sign Harden. They don’t have either a first- or second-round pick in the 2023 NBA draft, and they’ll be limited to only the $7.0 million taxpayer mid-level exception and veteran-minimum contracts in free agency.

There’s a chance that the Sixers will run this same group back next season, add a free agent with the TMLE and be even better positioned than they are this year. However, they’re far more likely to lose one or more of their non-Harden free agents, which could weaken their supporting cast and leave them even more top-heavy.

While the Sixers’ flexibility will be relatively limited this summer if they re-sign Harden, other teams will inevitably take some big swings in the draft, free agency and/or via trade. The Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks and Cleveland Cavaliers likely aren’t going anywhere in the Eastern Conference, but there’s no telling which other teams could join them as legitimate title contenders next season.

As long as Embiid and Harden are on the roster and healthy, the Sixers should be in the championship mix as well. But if Harden leaves this summer, that will temporarily close the door on Philly’s title chances. Even if he re-signs with the Sixers, a weaker supporting cast could hamper their championship upside, too.

Heading into the season, it seemed as though it might be now or never for this Sixers core to win a title. Five months later, the same holds true for Harden.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.