2-way risks persist – OCBC

The US Dollar (USD) saw a late comeback into Friday NY close as there appeared to be some disappointment with China stimulus. Trump’s threat on tariff remains one of the biggest risks that markets are concerned about, but we do not know how long it takes for those policies to be in place after all, President inauguration only takes place on 20th Jan. DXY was last at 105.40 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

The focus is on US CPI on Wednesday

“And we do not know for sure if election threats/ promises become reality. Tariff risk and Trump policy uncertainty may keep USD supported on dips but in the event of a delay to implementing tariffs or even in the scenario it doesn’t materialise, then further unwinding of Trump trade may also be likely.”

“Daily momentum is showing a mild bearish bias while RSI fell. Support at 103.70/80 levels (21, 200 DMAs, 50% fibo retracement of 2023 high to 2024 low). Resistance at 105.60 levels (76.4% fibo).”

“This week, the focus is on US CPI on Wed. Consensus expects core to hold steady at 3.3% while headline CPI may come in higher at 2.6%. The uptick may raise doubts if Fed will still cut rates in Dec. But we expect Fed to cut in Dec amid cooling job market. Moreover, post-FOMC last week, Powell commented that the election will have no near-term effect on monetary policy decisions.”