Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, says the Bitcoin halving cycle – which many market watchers swear by – may not work out this time. He argues that Bitcoin doesn’t follow a fixed four-year schedule but is instead propelled by monetary policies in the US and China.
Takeaways:
- Analyst Arthur Hayes warns the $BTC halving cycle could be superseded by US and China monetary policies.
- Tightening supply amid rising demand, however, could potentially see a price surge to $150K.
- $BTC hit a new ATH of $126K on October 6.
- Top altcoins are set to join $BTC on its upward trajectory.
Historically, Bitcoin’s peak in each cycle has occurred roughly 520–560 days after the halving. For example, the 2017 peak came 546 days post-halving, and with Bitcoin now trading around $122K, we’re currently sitting about 534 days after the latest one.
This is why many Bitcoin pundits believe the current cycle might be nearing its top, suggesting Bitcoin could have already peaked at these levels.
Bear in mind that the Fed’s overnight reverse repo facility has shrunk from $2.5T in 2022 to almost zero in 2025, suggesting aggressive T-bill issuance. This means a massive amount of money has re-entered circulation, leading to loosening financial conditions and an asset price boost.
A key aspect to consider here is that the Bitcoin halving cycle is common knowledge – it’s out there in the public for everyone to see.
As with any market, Bitcoin has already priced in the known supply changes. However, it’s the unknown future liquidity that can truly shock price movements, and that’s driven largely by government policies.
Demand is another important factor to look at. Currently, miners produce around 450 BTC per day. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETF inflows have reached about $22.5B so far this year – approximately $78M per day. This means Bitcoin’s demand exceeds its supply by more than 40%.
As simple economics suggests, tightening supply amid rising demand is a textbook setup for a price surge, not a cycle top.
Having hit a new ATH just a few days ago, Bitcoin is now consolidating around the $122K support level. For the next potential target, we can simply measure the width of the descending triangle Bitcoin broke recently and project it onto the breakout level.
The result? Bitcoin could be headed for the magic $150K mark in Q4 2025. Even better, October has traditionally churned out some of the highest monthly returns for Bitcoin, with an average of 29.23%.
With a new Bitcoin ATH on the cards, here’s a look at the top altcoins – including Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) and SUBBD Token ($SUBBD) – to buy right now.
1. Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) – New Bitcoin Layer-2 Solution for Solana-Like Speeds & Programmability
If you want to fully capitalize on Bitcoin’s upcoming bull run, then consider buying Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) – a new utility-backed altcoin with already over $22.8M raised in its ongoing presale.
Unlike other $BTC-themed tokens that simply associate themselves with Bitcoin to turn a quick profit, $HYPER actually aims to enhance Bitcoin’s real-world utility by bringing Solana-like performance to the network.
Right now, despite its dominance as an investment vehicle, Bitcoin has little to no utility from a blockchain perspective.
Hyper’s Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) integration changes that by allowing Bitcoin to process thousands of transactions simultaneously – something that wasn’t possible before.
Additionally, the SVM empowers developers to build dApps and smart contracts on Bitcoin, giving users access to Web3 features such as lending, staking, DeFi trading, NFTs, DAOs, and gaming.
Here’s the kicker: $HYPER is currently priced at just $0.013085 – because it’s in presale – so you have the chance to buy it at some of its lowest-ever prices.
Even better, early investors can also stake their tokens for a nifty 51% APY.
Grab your $HYPER tokens and join the Bitcoin Web3 revolution.
2. SUBBD Token ($SUBBD) – Content Creation Platform With Low Fees and AI Tools
SUBBD Token ($SUBBD) powers a one-of-a-kind content creation platform – SUBBD – which aims to revolutionize the subscription-based content industry.
This particular market is projected to grow at a whopping CAGR of 13.9% through 2030, yet it continues to face several challenges – unexplained bans, high fees, and little to no automation.
SUBBD offers complete creative freedom, allowing creators to produce and share the content they want. Plus, it charges only a small portion of their revenue as platform fees.
In exchange, SUBBD provides a suite of advanced AI tools, including text, voice, image, and video generators, to help creators produce engaging content effortlessly.
As for the fans, holding $SUBBD tokens unlocks several benefits. You can use it to access premium content, request personalized creations, and tip your favorite creators.
Naturally, creators on the platform earn in $SUBBD, which can then be sold, exchanged, or staked.
Speaking of staking, it works a bit differently on $SUBBD. Stakers will get a fixed return of 20% for the first year, along with exclusive access to behind-the-scenes content and creator livestreams.
SUBBD Token has already raised over $1.24M in its ongoing presale, with each token currently priced at just $0.05665.
Hurry up and buy $SUBBD today – the next price increase is just two days away.
3. Cardano ($ADA) – Mainstream Crypto Prepping for a Major Breakout
While the likes of Bitcoin and BNB have already completed their breakouts from long consolidation zones, one blue-chip crypto that could be on the cusp of a similar breakout is Cardano ($ADA).
As you can see, the token has grappled with the upper resistance line of its descending triangle more than five times now.
And given how prices move – i.e., the more times the price tests a particular support or resistance, the weaker it tends to get – the coming few days could see Cardano rise sharply.
As for a potential target, we can use the classic technical analysis playbook: measure the width of the descending triangle pattern and project it from the expected breakout level around $0.90.
The target, according to this method, comes out to roughly $2 – so a massive 145% return could be on the cards.
That said, a small caveat remains to watch out for – the breakout is yet to happen, so this is still pre-emptive analysis.
However, given Cardano’s importance in the crypto market – it’s currently the 10th-largest cryptocurrency by market cap – a breakout seems more likely sooner rather than later.
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Kosta joined the team in 2021 and quickly established himself with his thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication, and analytical thinking. He not only covers a wide range of current topics, but also writes excellent reviews, PR articles, and educational materials. His articles are also quoted by other news agencies.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-price-prediction-4-year-cycle-is-dead-top-altcoins-to-buy/