$1 Trillion In Economic Damage From U.S. House’s Reconciliation Bill

The “One Big Beautiful Bill” moving through the United States House of Representatives is being advertised as an economic engine, but that rhetoric masks its reality.

The current bill text would grind our economy to a halt by stealing 830,000 jobs by 2030, costing America more than $1 trillion in GDP by 2034, and increasing power prices 50% by 2035 according to new Energy Innovation analysis of energy-related provisions of the 2025 House Reconciliation bill.

By killing off existing clean energy tax incentives, Congress would kneecap our ability to build new power generation fast enough to meet soaring energy demand. Electricity demand is forecast to increase up to 15.8% in the next four years, with 128 gigawatts of new load expected on the grid as the AI race heats up. But the Reconciliation bill text would force expected clean energy capacity additions to fall dramatically – 114 GW by 2030 and 302 GW by 2035 – right when we need it most.

Warning signs are flashing for our economy: Inflation is rising and 82% of Americans are already worried about a potential recession. Clean energy is what’s available right now, and it cuts costs for families and businesses. But this bill would destabilize our economic competitiveness and set us back years against China and other economies to meet rising global demand for energy technologies.

America’s economy and families simply can’t afford this bill.

America’s Manufacturing – And GDP – Could Fall Off A Cliff

Last week, the House of Representatives released its 2025 budget Reconciliation legislation. Bill text passed out of several committees would repeal existing clean energy tax credits, claw back unobligated funding, expand oil and gas leasing, repeal certain Clean Air Act programs.

The sum of these parts would weaken our economy, not strengthen it, primarily by targeting existing clean energy tax credits passed by Congress in 2022. To date, these credits have generated $321 billion in new private investment across nearly 2,400 domestic clean-energy facilities, representing 4.7% of all U.S. private investment in the first quarter of 2025, with an additional $522 billion in private sector investment announced but not yet spent across more than 2,200 facilities.

The current Reconciliation legislation undercuts these 7,000 projects, risking billions in investments, dampening economic growth, eliminating jobs, and raising energy bills for people and businesses. Just the threat of repeal has already led investors to cancel $6.9 billion worth of projects between January and March 2025.

If the bill’s changes were fully implemented, that manufacturing growth would fall off a cliff as developers would cancel a significant number of announced clean energy manufacturing facilities, dramatically decreasing clean electricity generation deployment – costing America $1.1 in lost GDP between the budget reconciliation window of 2026-2034. That’s even worse than simple Inflation Reduction Act repeal.

Clean energy investment was worth $2.1 trillion in 2024, and while America’s clean energy economy has boomed since 2022, ceding this economic opportunity by killing off a fast-growing industry will hand that investment and jobs growth to competitors like China and the European Union.

Reconciliation Risks An Energy Crisis And Massive Job Losses

Losing out on all that clean energy manufacturing and deployment doesn’t just harm our overall economy, it also cuts off our ability to build new generation fast enough to meet electricity demand that’s surging due to data centers, manufacturing, and electrification.

The Reconciliation bill would dramatically decrease power generation capacity additions, costing the country 114 GW of new clean energy generation by 2030 and 302 GW by 2035, risking an energy crisis when we need new power more than ever.

Clean energy is the fastest option for utilities to meet rising demand – it composed 90% of all new capacity added to the grid in 2024, with solar and battery storage alone making up 84% of all new generation and renewables hitting 17% of total U.S. electricity supply.

But while gas has risen to become the nation’s largest source of electricity at 40% of total generation, new gas plants face massive hurdles to coming online because turbine manufacturers facing delivery backlogs until at least 2029. “To get your hands on a gas turbine right now and to actually get it to market, you’re looking at 2030 or later,” said John Ketchum, CEO of NextEra, one of America’s largest utilities.

And don’t forget jobs. The combination of cancelled manufacturing facilities and cancelled clean energy projects would cost our economy more than 830,000 jobs in 2030 and nearly 720,000 jobs in 2035. Not only would manufacturing and construction jobs disappear, but all the related jobs that depend on people working would suffer too – think the restaurant serving lunch, the stores selling uniforms and tools, and the destinations where those workers spend their vacations.

American Families And Businesses Forced To Pay More

But the real economic danger lurking in the Reconciliation bill’s text is the price American families and businesses would have to pay.

Decreased clean energy generation plus higher fossil fuel prices from increased gas exports and oil demand would force consumers to pay more than $16 billion more in annual energy costs in 2030 and more than $33 billion more in 2035 – an average of $120 more per year for American households in 2030 and $230 per year in 2035. Meanwhile fuel and operations and maintenance costs for businesses would spike $65 billion in 2030 and $94 billion in 2035.

This would all happen even if the Reconciliation bill increases U.S. oil and gas production and fossil fuel prices decline. Price reductions from higher fuel production are more than offset by greater demand for those fuels and higher electricity costs, forcing households to pay more for their energy. More internal combustion engine vehicles on the road means more demand for gasoline and diesel, while increased reliance on burning gas to generate electricity tightens supplies – on both, higher demand increases prices.

And while gas has been relatively cheap in recent years, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts gas prices will rise 91% by 2026 with “additional risk over the forecast period” from new liquefied natural gas exports.

Even new clean energy would become more expensive due to the Reconciliation bill’s proposed tax credit changes, as utilities and power market operators are forced to pay more for new generation, passing that increased cost directly through to consumers.

A shocking 34% of U.S. households had to cut back or skip necessary expenses in the past 12 months to pay energy bills, while 23% have been unable to pay part of all of their energy bill during the same time. Todd Brickhouse, CEO of North Dakota’s Basin Electric Power Cooperative, told Congress the “removal of [tech-neutral energy tax credits] will not allow utilities to plan for and avoid increased costs, and this will also immediately harm ratepayers.”

Reconciliation: One Big Beautiful Bill America Can’t Afford

With inflation rising, American households simply can’t afford another hit to their budgets. With a recession looming, American workers can’t afford to lose good jobs. And with tariff-induced trade wars on the horizon, American companies can’t afford to lose our domestic supply chain.

Add it all up, and the Reconciliation bill is a bad deal for our country.