1 Of These 5 ‘Never Kevin’ GOP Members Will Have To Cave For Him To Win

Topline

When the 118th Congress votes for a new speaker Tuesday afternoon, these five House GOP members are vowing to oppose the party’s lead candidate, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), a scenario that would leave him at least one vote short of the 218 needed to win, assuming all Democrats vote against him, unless one of the “Never Kevin” members change their mind.

Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

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Key Facts

Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) is waging his own challenge to McCarthy’s speakership bid after losing the nomination to him in November, when 31 Republicans voted against McCarthy.

In Tuesday’s election, McCarthy will need 218 votes to win the election outright, and considering Republicans hold just a slim four-seat majority in the chamber, 222-213, McCarthy can afford to lose just four votes.

In addition to Biggs, four other members of the right-wing House Freedom Caucus, known as the “Never Kevins”–Reps. Bob Good (Va.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Matt Rosendale (Mont.) and Ralph Norman (S.C.)–have vowed to vote as a bloc in the speaker election and all have either explicitly said they will oppose McCarthy or have publicly expressed their doubts about his leadership ability.

The five conservative hardliners have issued a list of demands to McCarthy, including one he reportedly agreed to in a last-minute concession over the weekend: making it easier for the GOP conference to force a vote to eject the speaker, a process known as the “motion to vacate,” which McCarthy has agreed to allow with just five Republican votes, down from the majority traditionally required.

Surprising Fact

If McCarthy does not win 218 votes outright, the election will go to additional rounds of voting until one candidate secures the majority needed to win–something that hasn’t happened since 1923.

What To Watch For

In the likely scenario McCarthy does not win the election in the first round of voting, Biggs would be knocked out and Republicans would have the option of voting for another candidate in addition to the top-vote getter (presumably McCarthy). Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) has been floated as an alternative, but his camp has said he is firmly behind McCarthy. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) is another name being thrown about, namely by Gaetz, who tweeted on Christmas Day: “Merry Christmas to all! Make sure to join me in encouraging @Jim_Jordan to seek the Speakership.”

Tangent

Nine additional House Republicans who have not said how they plan to vote for speaker expressed disappointment over McCarthy’s proposed House rules changes in a letter issued Sunday. The letter was a rebuttal to McCarthy’s first formal response to the various demands Republicans have made for incoming House leadership, many of which would reverse rules set by Pelosi. In addition to significantly lowering the vote threshold for the “motion to vacate,” McCarthy also agreed to establish a House judiciary subcommittee to investigate the Biden Administration’s “weaponization of the federal government,” an apparent nod to Republicans’ qualms about federal law enforcement agencies’ investigations into the Trump Administration and the January 6 Capitol riot. But the nine conservatives said McCarthy did not go far enough–namely regarding his concession on the motion to vacate. The members, including Reps. Scott Perry (Penn.) and Chip Roy (Tx.), said McCarthy’s five-vote threshold would “restrict the availability of the traditional motion to vacate the chair as a means of holding leadership accountable to its promises.” The letter also pointed to McCarthy’s silence on conservatives’ demand that congressional leadership-affiliated PACs, such as the Congressional Leadership Fund, stay out of primary races.

Key Background

McCarthy, who has spent 16 years in the House, has climbed the ranks of Republican leadership, serving as House majority leader under former Republican Speakers Paul Ryan (Wisc.) and John Boehner (Ohio) and minority leader since 2019. McCarthy dropped out of the 2015 race to succeed Boehner, citing a numbers problem, but this time around he has expressed plans to see the election through. One indicator of his confidence, or, determination: McCarthy has already begun moving into the speaker’s office Pelosi vacated over the holidays.