Topline
LGBTQ Americans are expected to rapidly become a greater share of the voting bloc in the coming years, a new report from the Human Rights Campaign and Bowling Green State University projects—making up nearly 20% of eligible voters by 2040—a trend that could have measurable impacts on voting outcomes in battleground states.
A Capital Pride rally at Freedom Plaza in Washington, D.C., on June 12, 2021.
Key Facts
The analysis, based on U.S. Census data and national population projections, predicted 14.3% of the voting eligible population (adults ages 18 and up) will identify as LGBTQ by 2030, and 17.8% are projected to identify as LGBTQ by 2040.
That’s up from approximately 10.8% of voting eligible adults who identified as LGBTQ in the 2020 general election, and 11.3% in the midterm elections this year.
Researchers attribute the overall increase in the LGBTQ population to the fact more young Americans are identifying as LGBTQ—thanks to being more comfortable and accepting of LGBTQ people and supportive of policies like same-sex marriage than older generations—and because younger generations are increasingly making up a larger share of the population overall.
LGBTQ Americans are also particularly likely to vote, the analysis argues, noting that LGBTQ voters made up a record 7% of voters in 2020 despite making up only 5.6% of U.S. adults overall.
Given that LGBTQ Americans typically favor candidates who back Democratic-leaning policies like same-sex marriage and reproductive rights, the analysis suggests the growing share of LGBTQ voters could have a measurable impact on election results, finding the share of eligible voters in key battleground states will notably increase over time in line with the general electorate.
Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Nevada and Texas, which all have higher-than-average LGBTQ populations already, are also projected to have even higher shares of LGBTQ voters by 2040 than the 17.8% of Americans overall, the analysis projects, and all five states are also expected to have more than 15% of their voting eligible populations identify as LGBTQ by 2030 (up from between 11.6% and 13.5% now).
Crucial Quote
“The impact of these trends could be immense,” the HRC notes in its report about the study’s findings. “In coming years, the growing LGBTQ+ electorate stands to fundamentally alter prospects for candidates, ballot questions, and other items put before voters.”
Contra
While the study finds some states will exceed the national average, other battleground states that already have a lower share of LGBTQ Americans than the national average are set to continue that trend. Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are expected to have an LGBTQ population of between 12% and 13.2% of the electorate by 2030 (with Michigan being the lowest and Pennsylvania the highest), and those states are also projected to have smaller LGBTQ populations than the U.S. overall by 2040. The states’ LGBTQ voter shares will still escalate from where they are now, however: In Florida, for instance, LGBTQ adults are expected to rise from 10.5% of voting eligible adults this year to 16.3% in 2040.
Key Background
The increasing share of LGBTQ voters comes as more Republican-led states have enacted policies targeting LGBTQ Americans, including in battleground states tracked in the HRC’s analysis. Florida has drawn widespread criticism for its law known as the “Don’t Say Gay” policy, for instance, which restricts discussions of sexual orientation and gender identity in schools, and has also excluded gender-affirming care from Medicaid and moved to block minors from receiving it. Texas, where the study found 19.9% of adults will identify as LGBTQ by 2040, has also drawn widespread condemnation for a policy investigating parents of children who’ve received gender-affirming care for child abuse, and the state government has also taken steps like restricting transgender athletes in school sports. Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) has also signed multiple bills into law this year that target LGBTQ Americans, allowing taxpayer-funded adoption and foster care agencies to discriminate against same-sex families and restricting gender-affirming care and transgender participation in school sports.
Further Reading
Equality Electorate: The Projected Growth of the LGBTQ+ Voting Bloc in Coming Years (Human Rights Campaign)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2022/10/13/1-in-7-eligible-voters-could-be-lgbtq-by-2030-study-projects/