1 In 10 Chance Of Casualties From Out-Of-Control Rockets Falling To Earth Over Next Decade, Study Finds

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There is a 10% chance of uncontrolled rocket parts returning to Earth causing one or more casualties over the next decade, according to a paper published Monday in Nature Astronomy, underscoring the growing threat space junk poses as more and more countries and companies push out into space.

The Long March-5B Y2 rocket, part of which fell to Earth in the Indian Ocean

VCG via Getty Images

Key Facts

Though the risk of rocket bodies returning to Earth and injuring or killing someone is small—most would be likely to land in the ocean or somewhere uninhabited—researchers warned the risks add up over time.

Using public reports on rocket launches and 30 years of data on abandoned rocket bodies in orbit, the researchers said there is an estimated one in 10 chance of one or more casualties over the next decade if current practices do not change.

As many rockets are launched to orbits near the equator, they are more likely to reenter over the global South, where the risk of them landing is borne disproportionately.

Rocket bodies are approximately three times more likely to land at the latitudes of cities like Jakarta, Dhaka, Mexico City, Bogotá and Lagos than those of New York, Beijing or Moscow, the researchers said.

While it has not always been possible to use rockets with components that can be safely guided back to Earth, the researchers said modern technology and mission design make them a viable option but states and companies are reluctant to take on the added expense.

The researchers called for multinational agreements to mandate controlled rocket re-entries, accusing major spacefaring nations like the U.S., China, Russia and Europe (which is treated as a single entity) of “exporting” their risk to the rest of the world and externalizing the costs of getting into space in a similar fashion to greenhouse gas emissions.

Key Background

China was heavily criticized last year when a booster of the Long March-5B rocket entered orbit at high speed and careened unpredictably back to Earth, eventually plunging into the Indian Ocean near the Maldives. Ultimately, no casualties were reported.The chances it would fall on populated areas were non-negligible, however, and U.S. experts and officials slammed the rocket’s poor design and China’s cavalier attitude towards space safety, alleging negligence. The incident shone a light on the growing problem space trash poses and the potential issues even a single actor can cause. As more countries and private companies push into space, the issue is set to intensify, especially as there is no legal framework governing what is left in space (there are treaties that cover things crashing back to Earth, which are the responsibility of the country it came from).

Big Number

27,000. That’s how many pieces of orbital debris, or “space junk,” are tracked by the Department of Defense. NASA warns there is much more space junk out there, it’s just too small to be tracked.

Tangent

The vast majority of space junk will never pose a direct physical threat to anyone on Earth—they are orbiting the planet and would likely burn up on reentry if this did change—but they do pose a substantial danger to other items, or vehicles, in space. The extremely high speeds at which debris, space objects or spacecraft move mean even a tiny piece of debris could cause massive problems. Even “tiny paint flecks” can damage spacecraft, according to NASA, which said several space shuttle windows had to be replaced because of damage caused by what turned out to be paint flecks. The risk that sprawling satellite constellations—such as the one being created by Elon Musk’s SpaceX—will create more space debris worries experts and even the satellites themselves have caused issues and near-misses with spacecraft.

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