Prediction markets (PMs) are one of crypto’s hottest topics alongside stablecoins, tokenization, and perpetual markets right now. However, the segment is typically viewed as typical gambling by critics.
For Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin, however, PMs are “truth seeking” and “an antidote for crazy opinions,” with the exec citing Elon Musk’s claim of “UK civil war being inevitable.”
Source: Farcaster
That being said, he did acknowledge that the platforms can still be manipulated to cause harm.
Polymarket’s breakthrough
Still, 2025 became a breakout moment for the segment, particularly with the integration of major financial platforms for risk planning.
Polymarket was tapped by New York Stock Exchange’s (NYSE) parent company, ICE, to distribute the platform’s data to global financial firms. This would help with risk management for hedge funds and other entities.
It also scored a partnership with social media giant X (formerly Twitter). The Polygon-based decentralized PM soon reached a record high in daily trading volume, at $179 million, amid growing traction and adoption.
Source: X
Interestingly, Premier League and other sports seasons began in August, and Polymarket volume also picked up momentum around that time. However, prediction markets enable users to wager on multiple markets, ranging from elections to cryptocurrency topics.
Polymarket vs. Kalshi
Given their financial incentives, markets and experts, including Buterin, view PMs as a better source of truth than traditional surveys.
For long, Polygon-based Polymarket has been the leading Web3 predictions market. However, Kalshi tokenised its smart contracts and partnered with various Solana-based platforms such as Jupiter. The BNB chain also scaled its adoption of PMs.
Lately though, Kalshi has eaten into Polymarket’s share. In fact, it now controls 73% of the market’s volume.
Source: The Block
Kalshi partly gained traction due to Polymarket’s U.S ban since 2022. However, the platform has resolved its regulatory issues and is planning to reopen to the U.S. market again. Even so, it remains to be seen if it will reclaim its market dominance.
Also, Polygon’s recent downtime affected Polymarket, prompting the team to accelerate its L2, according to insiders. Besides, with the planned POLY launch, the platform volumes could bounce back, driven by users farming for airdrops.
Final Thoughts
- Prediction markets are ‘truth-seeking’ tools to clear noise from crazy markets and topics, according to Buterin.
- Kalshi continues to dominate market volume as Polymarket seeks U.S market re-entry.