Shanghai/Shapella Upgrade: Will it sink or swim Ethereum’s market valuation?

• Over 18 million ETH are currently staked, representing over 15% of the entire circulating ETH supply
• While some metrics pointed to a potential downturn, other indicators offered a more optimistic outlook

The upcoming Shanghai/Shapella upgrade of Ethereum [ETH] has left many pondering the potential effects on ETH’s market valuation. While some metrics pointed to a possible downturn, other indicators seemed to offer a more optimistic outlook.

– Read Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction 2023-24

Ethereum worth billions of dollars to hit the market

According to data from CryptoQuant and Dune Analytics, Ethereum’s stake has been on the upswing, despite the approaching upgrade. In fact, at the time of writing, the overall value staked had soared past 18 million, equivalent to over 15% of the entire circulating ETH supply.

Additionally, CryptoQuant’s statistics revealed a surge in staking inflows, with February registering the highest inflow rate of the year.

Source: CryptoQuant

Moreover, Dune Analytics’ data revealed that Kraken has currently staked over 1.2 million ETH, placing it third among the top stakers. Celsius, on the other hand, has approximately 158,000 ETH staked. When added to the over 1 million ETH rewards that will be unlocked after the upgrade, it comes up to billions of dollars in ETH value. 

However, partial reward withdrawals of over 1 million ETH could be dumped into the market. Celsius Network may sell its 158,000 staked balance as part of its bankruptcy proceedings, leading to almost 1.3 million ETH or about $2.4 billion in potential sell-side pressure facing the market.

Here, it is also worth noting that Kraken, which recently faced regulatory scrutiny for not registering its staking-as-a-service offering in the U.S., may decide to unstake all its ETH holdings.

ETH saved by metrics?

However, not all unlocked Ethereum will flood the market. According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, out of the 18 million ETH currently staked, approximately 9.7 million ETH are at a loss.

According to Dune Analytics, the number at a loss represents over 50% of the total staked value. Furthermore, when comparing the initial deposit value to the prevailing value, only 29.2% of the staked ETH is profitable while 70.8% is underwater. 

Source: DuneAnalytics

The aforementioned metrics suggest that many stakers may hold their positions rather than sell at a loss. This action could reduce the sell-side pressure on the market.

Unstaked ETH volume v. daily volume

Even if we consider the stakes from Kraken and Celsius and the partial reward unlocks, the total amount of Ethereum involved would be less than 3 million.

Meanwhile, data from Santiment revealed that ETH’s average daily trading volume is around four billion, with the same flashing a figure of around 9.4 billion at press time. This means that in the event of a sell-off, the volume of ETH being moved would be insignificant compared to the overall volume.

As a result, the impact on ETH’s price may be negligible.

Source: Santiment

– How much are 1,10,100 ETHs worth today

Although the upcoming Ethereum upgrade and unlocks have raised concerns, the impact on price may not be significant. Despite the potential for a sell-off, the volume of ETH involved would be relatively small, compared to the overall daily trading volume.

Additionally, many stakers may hold on to their positions rather than sell at a loss, reducing the sell-side pressure. Therefore, barring any major unforeseen events, we are likely to see regular price movement after the upgrade.