Is Ethereum’s Rally on Hold or Just Missing the Crowd?

• Ethereum retail activity remains low, while derivatives data reveals increasing interest from larger market participants.
• Open interest and trading volume suggest traders expect Ethereum’s next big move soon.

One interesting thing lately: Ethereum is going up, but the crowd isn’t really in retail investors. Imagine a big concert, but the main audience hasn’t come in yet—that’s roughly what the ETH market is like right now.

According to on-chain analysis by Burak Kesmeci at CryptoQuant, Ethereum has had a fairly consistent pattern since the pandemic.

Every time ETH hits a local peak, a spike in retail activity almost always follows. This was especially evident in 2021, when market euphoria made anyone with an exchange account feel like a strategist. But now? It’s a different story.

Bitcoin itself has soared from $16,000 to above $111,000. Ethereum, on the other hand, has been rather calm. There was a spark of interest from small traders around December 2024, as seen from the increase in activity, but it all disappeared once tensions over Trump’s tariffs surfaced. The market immediately shrank its risk appetite, and as usual, retail investors were the first to slowly back away.

Ethereum Trading Data Hints at Brewing Momentum

Interestingly, behind the quiet retail, data shows that there is a big ripple in the Ethereum derivatives market. CoinGlass data show a spike in ETH derivatives trading volume of 11.39%, with daily transaction figures reaching $53.86 billion. This figure indicates that big players are starting to prepare, as if strategizing before the crowd begins.

Furthermore, the open interest value also increased by 2.86% and is now at $33.06 billion. This means that more and more traders are choosing to maintain their positions, as if convinced that a big move is coming soon. And that doesn’t include the options market, whose volume jumped 21.48% to $524.75 million.

Even its open interest increased, albeit only by 0.96%, to $8.03 billion. There is a strong signal that the market is catching its breath, not giving up.

If we take a peek at data from Binance, the long to short ratio for ETH/USDT is at 2.2584. So, more than twice as many accounts are long as short.

Institutions Move First, Retail Still Waiting for Signs

Meanwhile, CNF recently reported that Ethereum successfully broke through the zone of dense liquidity, and the result: more than $50 million in short positions were immediately liquidated. Shortly after, large wallets aka institutional investors accumulated 1.4 million ETH. That looks more like a “wholesale” action from those with long-term beliefs.

However, the fact that retail has not yet entered in droves can mean two things: either they are not yet convinced, or they are waiting for a definite sign. But if we look at the history of the crypto market, the absence of retail often means one thing—the early phase is not over. There is still room. There is still gas in the tank.

At the time of writing, ETH is up 3.06% in the last 24 hours, trading around $2,583. Its daily trading volume has also jumped 23.33%, hitting $13.76 billion.

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