Is BitMine pushing its Ethereum thesis too far after $6 billion hit?

For months, Tom Lee’s BitMine was known for buying Ethereum, no matter what.

The company built a reputation as the most aggressive corporate holder of ETH, betting heavily on Lee’s idea of an Ethereum supercycle.

Now, that bet is being tested.

After a 22.6% drop, BitMine’s Ethereum portfolio has fallen to about $9.04 billion in value.

This marks a sharp reversal from late 2025, forcing serious questions.

Will this downturn simply validate Tom Lee’s long-term conviction, or does it signal that BitMine has pushed its treasury strategy too far?

BitMine’s losses analysed

BitMine’s core problem is its massive bet on Ethereum [ETH].

The company now holds 4,031,739 ETH, making it one of the largest ETH holders in the world.

Even as prices were falling, Tom Lee kept buying. Just last week, BitMine added 40,000 ETH at an average price of $2,220.

The market, however, moved in the opposite direction.

Ethereum has dropped more than 28% over the past month, including about 7% in just one day, as per CoinMarketCap.

Because of this, BitMine is now sitting on over $6 billion in unrealized losses on its Ethereum holdings alone.

Losses across the board

Needless to say, the trouble goes beyond Ethereum.

BitMine also holds 11,902 Bitcoin [BTC] and 89,452,910 Solana [SOL], and falling prices across the crypto market have dragged those assets down as well.

Forced liquidations in derivatives markets made the sell-off worse.

When Ethereum broke below key price levels, automated trades kicked in and pushed traders to sell.

That selling quickly spread across major exchanges, driving prices even lower and leaving large investors like BitMine with very few safe options.

The impact also reached the stock market, with $BMNR falling to nearly 6%, closing at $25.10.

So, now the key issue is whether to focus on short-term safety or long-term belief.

However, if the stock keeps falling along with crypto prices, shareholders may push the company to cut risk.

Lee was prepared

That said, Lee had already warned investors that early 2026 would be rough.

He pointed to rising trade tensions and growing concerns around the Federal Reserve as key risks.

Lee also expects added uncertainty as the Fed transitions from Jerome Powell to a likely successor, Kevin Warsh.

In his view, 2026 could compress fear, downturns, and recovery into a single volatile year.

“2026 is shaping up to be similar to 2025. So a painful decline may lie ahead, but we would ‘buy the dip.”

So, whether BitMine’s $9 billion crypto treasury turns into a warning story or the base of a strong recovery in 2026 depends entirely on that belief.

Final Thoughts

• With millions of ETH on its books, even small price moves now have outsized consequences for BitMine.
• Macro uncertainty, Fed leadership changes, and trade tensions add another layer of risk to the strategy.