Ethereum’s price against bitcoin, the ratio, has formed what may potentially be a huge cup and handle over the past four years.
At 0.078 BTC, the ratio is back to 2018 levels after forming a huge cup, but the question is, does it really have a handle?
As can be seen above, the ratio did form a nice handle in July 2021, but then made what might look like a double top in lower time-frames, to instead end up with a higher low and a new peak of 0.088 in December 2021.
The spring-summer crash then crashed the ratio too, and so we get a pretty messy handle, but with some imagination you can draw the line to make it a pretty textbook cup and handle.
A cup and handle is a very bullish formation that shows bears have run out of ammo, forming the cup, with bulls then gaining the upper hand.
That’s until bears try to dominate again, forming the handle. Presuming it does turn out to be an actual handle, then that would have been the last gasp of bears, and so bulls charge with glee to…. well, the moon obviously.
The moon in this case would be 0.155 bitcoin per eth, the all time high reached in June 2017.
That would also amount to the flipping and if this ‘go through bars like candy’ drawn handle is correct, it may even go beyond just a flip.
There’s some reason to speculate the cup and handle will play out as well because ethereum will be paying validators far less than bitcoin, by a factor of 10, starting this Wednesday.
So demand for bitcoin will need to become a lot more than for eth, rather than a somewhat stable 2x, and since that relative demand has been stable-ish for the two over the years, the relative price arguably should change in favor of eth.
That will play over months however since this is a years long cup and handle, if it plays out at all, and bitcoin will probably put up some fight.
But, the relative change in supply will amount to about half a billion dollars a month buying more eth than bitcoin.
That’s a pretty huge number, even at these market caps. So incredible as this cup and handle is, and however badly drawn without crayons, it might actually play out.
Source: https://www.trustnodes.com/2022/09/12/ethereums-ratio-eyes-massive-cup-and-handle