Ethereum’s fate hinges on one support – Break it, and…

Key Takeaways

Why is Ethereum at a critical point right now?

Because ETH is sitting on its final major support, and losing it could open a deeper gap.

Why are whales buying while ETFs outflow?

Because big players see value at current prices.

Ethereum’s latest dip hasn’t scared off the big wallets. If anything, it’s attracting them!

A Bitmine-linked address has bought millions in Ethereum [ETH], even as analysts warn the asset is now resting on its final major support before a steep air pocket.

And then there’s Tom Lee, whose valuation model now says ETH could be worth anywhere between $12,000 and $62,500 – a range so wide it almost feels like he’s trying to keep everyone happy.

What comes next won’t just test Ethereum’s price levels, but its believers.

These numbers have everyone talking

Tom Lee has put out new numbers on the table for Ethereum, and they’re impossible to ignore. The spread between them is so wide it almost feels like a stress test for everyone’s belief.

His model places ETH’s “fair value” at around $12,000 if it simply tracks its long-term ETH/BTC average. If the market ever reverts to the 2021 ratio, that number jumps to $21,800.

And in the most optimistic scenario — where Ethereum becomes core settlement infrastructure — the estimate shoots up to $62,500.

Source: X

All of this sits uncomfortably beside today’s price of roughly $2,800.

Whales love the fear!

A Bitmine-linked wallet just made a big buy, buying 21,537 ETH (about $59.17 million) at roughly $2,750 while retail traders were panic-selling the dip.

It’s similar to the MicroStrategy-style accumulation we’ve seen in Bitcoin [BTC], but this time for Ethereum.

Source: X

Even though social feeds are full of breakdown fears, whale activity will not flinch!

Aggregated OI is holding steady around $15.46B, so there’s no panic. There’s been no big leverage flush, no wave of forced liquidations, and no rush for the exits.

If traders were truly scared, OI would have dropped sharply, but it hasn’t. Funding is slightly positive at 0.0053, so traders are leaning long without being overly aggressive.

Source: Coinalyze

This often appears when the market is stabilizing after a move down. The market may look shaky, but strong hands are stepping in.

ETF flows flip negative

According to the latest SoSoValue weekly data, ETH ETFs have now recorded roughly $500 million in net outflows, making that one of the biggest pullbacks in months.

At the same time, total net assets have slipped from their recent highs, so ETF investors are reducing exposure rather than adding to it.

Source: SoSoValue

What makes this interesting is that while ETF flows are turning negative, large players are buying millions in spot ETH.

On one hand, regulated ETF investors are stepping back, likely reacting to price weakness and macro factors. On the other, whales buying directly from the market don’t seem to care!

Last support standing

This time, there’s almost no room for Ethereum to slip. On the chart, ETH is resting right on its final structural base, the same zone that held the entire 2022-2025 range.

In past cycles (2016-2018 and 2018-2021), whenever ETH lost this level, the price dropped fast because there was almost no support underneath. That’s why analysts are calling this moment “the cliff.”

Structurally, that’s exactly what it is.

Source: X

What makes this moment even more serious is the candle behavior. Sellers are showing real strength, and rising volume proves it. Price is weakening exactly where it can’t afford to.

But sentiment doesn’t match the chart. Whales are buying. Crowd psychology is turning bullish. ETF outflows and spot accumulation are pointing in different directions.

Source: X

It’s a strange mix, and that’s the problem — the feelings are positive, but the structure is not. If ETH loses this level, the next support isn’t “slightly lower.” It’s much lower.

This is the cliff.

What happens next?

If this support holds, everything changes. Whale accumulation starts to look smart, Bitmine’s dip-buying becomes a sign, and those long-term fair value models suddenly feel a lot more believable.

But if this level breaks… ETF outflows, weakening structure, and the huge gap below price start to matter very quickly. There’s not much support underneath. Just empty space.

The next move decides everything.