Ethereum: What to expect from the leading alt in Q4 after Merge

The Ethereum Merge was considered the most anticipated event before 15 September. However, there is no use denying the fact that the Merge failed to positively impact the price Ether [ETH].

According to data from cryptocurrency social analytics platform LunarCrush, the hype that surrounded the Merge before its implementation caused ETH’s social activity to rally. In addition, for several months before the Merge, the term “Merge” trended as the most mentioned term, according to data from Santiment.

However, following the event and a consequential death to its hype, ETH’s social activity witnessed a steady decline.

Remember this event? #Ethereum is not sustaining its rise in social activity since #TheMerge 2-weeks ago.

What will it take for $ETH‘s social activity to surpass this event❓ pic.twitter.com/pHvCfwXpQC

— LunarCrush (@LunarCrush) September 30, 2022

The price of the leading alt has not been spared from the decimation. ETH opened Q4 at $1,326.30 and with a 24% drop since the Merge, data from CoinMarketCap showed. 

ETH on-chain: what to expect in Q4

Holders spent most of Q3 sending ETH into exchanges. Data from Santiment revealed a rally in the alt’s supply on exchanges within the three-month period. Interestingly, from 15 September, this metric quit its upward rally and embarked on a journey towards the south. 

This meant that prior to the Merge, ETH holders took to coin distribution. This was due to the uncertainty surrounding the event’s success.

However, following its successful completion, coin accumulation resumed. Additionally, the quantum of ETH sent into exchanges also gradually declined. 

With a continued decline in ETH’s supply on exchanges, the price of the alt is expected to see an upward reversal in Q4.

However, ETH shared a statistically significant positive correlation with Bitcoin [BTC], an asset many believe to have yet touched the bottom of the current bear market cycle. 

Source: Santiment

Furthermore, as revealed by the Mean Dollar Invested Age (MDIA) metric in Q3, previously dormant ETH coins started moving addresses a month before the Merge. While a fall in an asset’s MDIA suggested significant activity on its network and was a precursor to a price rally, the reverse was the case for ETH. 

As the MDIA fell (showing increased activity), the price per ETH also dropped. In the three weeks leading up to the Merge, ETH logged consecutive outflows as investors feared that the Merge would fail.

Furthermore, dormant coins moving addresses might have been investors sending the long-held ETH out of their wallets.

Following the Merge, the MDIA began on an uptrend suggesting that dormancy once again returned to the ETH network. 

Source: Santiment

As the whales flip out

The impact of whale accumulation instigating the price of ETH cannot be overstated. According to data from Santiment, key whales holding between 10,000 to 1,000,000 ETH coins gradually reduced their ETH holdings a few days before the Merge.

With a decline in the broader financial market and a consequential decline in the cryptocurrency market, these whales witnessed no incentive to return. Furthermore, the responsibility to drive up the price of ETH then rested on the shoulders of asset retailers.

Source: Santiment

At press time, buying pressure had waned on the daily chart, making any significant short-term price rally increasingly unlikely.