Ethereum Realized Price Below $2K, Will 2020 Rally Repeat?

Ethereum (ETH) price has fallen below its realized price of $2,000, a rare technical event that has captured market attention.

This move drew comparisons to March 2020, when ETH dipped sharply before embarking on a historic recovery.

Using on-chain data, technical indicators, and chart patterns aligning, traders are now closely watching for signals of a potential upward reversal.

Ethereum’s Realized Price Breach Echoes March 2020 Cycle

Ethereum’s realized price, which represents the average price at which all circulating ETH was last transacted, is seen as a key metric for identifying undervalued conditions.

On April 8th, 2025, ETH dropped below this level, now trading near $1,472. Historically, dips below the realized price have been followed by accumulation and long-term appreciation.

This mirrors a similar occurrence during the March 2020 market crash. At that time, Ethereum briefly fell below its realized price, reaching a low of $109.

Within the following year, Ethereum’s price rallied past $4,000, marking one of its strongest bull runs.

Market participants are now considering whether this latest breach could mark the beginning of a comparable phase.

Oversold Signals and Chart Patterns Point to Potential Rebound

Momentum indicators and chart structures are aligning to suggest the possibility of a long-term reversal for Ethereum.

Analyst Javon Marks highlights the Wave Trend Oscillator, which has recently entered oversold territory.

Historically, this indicator has only done so five times, each instance preceding a major upward price movement.

During the 2016–2017 bull run, the oscillator’s oversold reading came before a gain of approximately 14,000%.

Similarly, the 2020–2021 cycle saw ETH rally by around 4,000% from its lows after the same signal appeared.

The current reading mirrors those previous levels, suggesting the potential for another extended move upward if broader conditions align.

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s monthly chart is forming a large bullish pennant pattern that has been developing since its 2021 all-time high.

Analyst MerlijnTrader notes that ETH is consolidating within this structure, with price continuing to respect both the ascending support and descending resistance trendlines since 2022.

This pennant lines up with a recent bounce off of $1,500, which sits as the pennant’s lower boundary.

If the pattern resolves upward, long-term projections based on historical pattern behavior suggest Ethereum could reach as high as $8,000 by 2028.

Such a breakout would require overcoming resistance levels in the $2,800–$3,500 range in the medium term.

Ethereum Price Daily Chart Technical Analysis Data

Looking at the 24-hour chart, Ethereum has displayed a bullish reversal pattern, the falling wedge.

With a break above the upper boundary of the wedge, now near $1,600–$1,700, ETH may possibly surge towards $3,200–$3,500.

RSI is currently in oversold territory at 24.98. If the rebound moves above 30 or 50, it would also confirm the beginning of bullish momentum.

Moreover, bearish pressure is waning, as the MACD histogram is shrinking.

Both the MACD and the signal line are still negative, but a crossover in the future sessions would have been in favor of a reversal.

Additionally, the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) is now positive at +1.86K, which means that recent buying volume is outstripping selling pressure implying that demand is starting to return.

The Drop in Exchange Reserves to Multi-Year Lows

Furthermore, the reserves from Ethereum’s exchange have dipped to 18.6 million ETH, its lowest level in years.

This drop indicates that investors are withdrawing assets from exchanges, which might signal long-term holding behavior and staking the assets.

Reduced reserves typically mean less ETH is available for immediate sale, which can contribute to a supply shock if demand rises.