Ethereum Price Risks a Drop to $1,500 — Here’s Why

The Ethereum price is showing early signs of stabilization after a sharp sell-off in late January. ETH has rebounded about 4.6% over the past 24 hours after dipping near $2,160. On the surface, this looks like a relief bounce inside a broader falling wedge pattern.

But on-chain data tells a more cautious story. While the bullish structure has not fully broken, long-term holder behavior and profit-loss metrics are weakening. Together, they suggest that this rebound may lack strong conviction. If these trends persist, Ethereum could remain vulnerable to another leg lower, with even $1,500 in sight.

A 37% Price Drop Couldn’t Break Pattern, But There’s A Catch

Since mid-January, Ethereum has fallen nearly 37% to lows around $2,160. The decline followed a clear bearish divergence.

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Between January 6 and January 14, ETH made a higher high, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a lower high. RSI measures momentum on a 0–100 scale. When price rises, but RSI weakens, it signals fading buying pressure. This divergence often leads to trend reversals, and Ethereum responded accordingly.

Despite the sharp drop, the price has stayed inside a falling wedge. A falling wedge forms when the price makes lower highs and lower lows inside narrowing trendlines. It is usually a bullish structure that signals weakening selling pressure.

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So structurally, Ethereum has not fully broken down. However, something more important has weakened: long-term holder conviction.

Hodler Net Position Change tracks whether long-term investors are accumulating or selling. On January 18, the 30-day net position change peaked near +338,708 ETH. This showed strong accumulation.

By February 2, that figure had collapsed to around +40,953 ETH. That is a drop of nearly 90%.

This means long-term holders have sharply reduced buying during the correction. When conviction holders do not accumulate into weakness, it usually signals that the market has not reached a true bottom. Strong bottoms form when long-term holders keep accumulating even as prices fall. That is not happening now.

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Paper Profits And Exchange Transfers Show Rallies Are Being Sold

The second warning comes from Ethereum’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and exchange transfer data.

NUPL measures how much profit or loss holders have on paper. It compares current prices with the average purchase price. When NUPL is high, most investors are in profit. When it turns negative, many are at a loss.

In late January, Ethereum’s NUPL dropped from around 0.25 to near 0.007 by February 1. This shows that profits have almost vanished, but not completely.

However, on a one-year view, NUPL is still far from true capitulation.

In April 2025, NUPL fell to −0.22. That marked deep fear and capitulation. After that, ETH rallied from about $1,472 to $4,829, a surge of roughly 228%. Today, NUPL is nowhere near those levels.

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This suggests that large-scale capitulation has not happened yet. There may still be room for further downside before a durable bottom forms.

Exchange transfer data adds to this risk. During the late-January drop, numbers of transfers (not coins) fell to around 23,000–24,000 per day. This showed reduced selling pressure near the lows. But during the rebound between February 1 and February 2, transfers jumped to above 37,000.

That is a rise of more than 50% in one day. This means many holders (possibly the speculative ones) used the bounce to move ETH to exchanges and likely sell. When every rebound triggers a spike in transfers, it signals that rallies are being distributed, not accumulated.

This pattern highlights a growing divide between speculative traders and longer-term capital.

Gil Rosen, Co-Founder of the Blockchain Builders Fund, described this split in an exclusive quote to BeInCrypto:

“There are two separate capital flows. There is institutional capital that was beginning to heavily invest in crypto across all asset classes, and then there are retail flows. Institutional capital is always macro first, and when markets shift, crypto is still viewed as a risk asset. Meanwhile, short-term speculative capital surged in Q4,” he highlighted

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This behavior keeps upward moves weak.

Ethereum Price Levels Show Why $1,500 Is Back in Play

With structure holding but conviction weakening, the Ethereum price levels now matter more than indicators. The first key support sits near $2,250. This level has acted as a short-term base after the rebound.

Below that, $2,160 remains critical. This marks the recent low and is closer to the lower boundary of the falling wedge. A confirmed break below this zone would weaken the bullish Ethereum price structure.

If $2,160 fails and also the lower wedge trendline , risk opens toward the $1,540 region, a key Fib extension level to the downside. This kind of dip would also bring NUPL closer to historical capitulation levels and the price near the April 2025 zone.

That is where a deeper reset could occur. On the upside, Ethereum must reclaim $2,690 to change the narrative. This level marks a major Fibonacci resistance and a prior breakdown zone.

Only a sustained move above $2,690 would signal that buyers are regaining control. Until then, rallies between $2,250 and $2,690 are likely to face heavy selling pressure. As long as ETH remains trapped in this range, every bounce risks becoming another exit opportunity.