Ethereum price forecasting – The Cryptonomist

In this article we will make predictions for the future price of Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

In a year that seems to be off to a good start, following a disastrous bear market, ETH looks poised to climb to new heights, and who knows, perhaps to surpass Bitcoin in the rank of the most valuable crypto assets ever.

Let’s shed some light on the situation.

Forecasting the price of Ethereum

In the first quarter of 2023 ETH, the coin that powers the ecosystem of dApps developed on top of Ethereum’s technology, experienced a major price increase taking it from around $1,200 at the start to the current $1,880 at which it is traded on major cryptocurrency exchanges.

In detail, since January, ETH’s price action has recorded four consecutive monthly green candles, even under the assumption that the coin closes the April candle above $1820. 

This situation has not been seen since 2021, a period in which the price of ETH jumped from $800 up to $2770, and then continued its upward run, albeit with some retracement, to an all-time high of $4868 (spot price of the ETH:USDT pair on Binance)

Beyond the general optimism in the air, Ethereum’s price movement right now seems to resemble that of early 2019, a year that saw a small market recovery after the bear market of 2018, followed by another 6 months of price distribution.

In this context, history could repeat itself, and if so, ETH would have more time before preparing for the bull run.

Then again, everyone expects a super market recovery and a return to all-time highs for Bitcoin and Ethereum, but as is well known, things always go the other way from popular opinion. 

Some prominent figures within the cryptocurrency industry fear a less-than-stellar year for ETH’s value trend, although they argue that the price will not fall below the current $1880 threshold.

In this regard, Ruadahan O, creator of “Seasonal Tokens” predicted a modest year-end price of $2,200 for ETH. He fears that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may undermine Ethereum’s success in the United States.

“Ethereum could be classified as a security by the SEC, because Ethereum investors are effectively betting on the future performance of the developers. The New York Attorney General has recently made this argument in a lawsuit against KuCoin, and the SEC may adopt the same argument as it seeks to assert jurisdiction over Ethereum.”

On the other hand, some like Aaron Rafferty, CEO and co-founder of StandardDAO, are optimistic that US authorities, such as the CTFC, will classify ETH as a commodity rather than a security, inspired by what is happening in Europe with the MiCA regulation.

“If Ethereum is regulated as a commodity as the EU MiCA regulations would lead us to believe, then expect to see a significant jump given its current market dominance as the number one settlement layer for dApps.”

Will Ethereum be able to surpass Bitcoin in market capitalization?

Many believe that sooner or later Ethereum will succeed in flipping Bitcoin by market capitalization, effectively becoming the #1 cryptocurrency in the market.

The ecosystem that Vitalik Buterin has developed in recent years is much more full of projects and innovation than the one created and then “abandoned” by Satoshi Nakamoto more than 10 years ago.

Just think of the smart contract factor, which is still absent in Bitcoin, except with a few digital artifacts.

As for functionality, Sathvik Vishwanath, project manager of “Crynet marketing solutions” reminds investors.

“Ethereum’s blockchain technology allows for decentralized applications and smart contracts, which opens up new possibilities for industries like finance, real estate, and gaming. Additionally, ETH’s value is tied to its usage on the Ethereum network, which is increasingly being adopted by businesses and individuals.”

Then again, Bitcoin turns out to be the most decentralized crypto in the world, which can boast precisely on the fact that there is no entity that controls or governs the network, something that cannot be said for ETH, which fortunately/unfortunately is supported by the Ethereum Foundation, even though it represents a decentralized blockchain among the network’s many, many nodes.

It is not easy to predict whether the digital token used to pay gas fees by users, will succeed in surpassing the digital gold Bitcoin, and it will be necessary to watch the progress of crypto regulations in the US and Europe regarding the future of the DeFi world, the beating heart of the Ethereum ecosystem to understand whether this niche will become more and more an integral part of everyday financial life.

If so, and DeFi succeeds in increasing its TVL to significantly higher values, then ETH will probably one day reach the status of the most highly valued cryptocurrency ever.

Continuing on this very sensitive issue that is being discussed within the crypto world community, according to a survey conducted by Finder which polled 32 fintech specialists in April 2023, most respondents doubt that ETH will surpass BTC in market capitalization.

47% do not believe Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin, while 20% are unsure.

13% believe Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin by 2025, while 17% think it will take until 2030.

As for factors that could influence this, the regulatory landscape in the United States continues to seem like a big issue.

How to make short- and long-term predictions for the price of Ethereum

Making predictions about the future of crypto is always very difficult, given the multitude of variables in the financial markets and given the great volatility inherent within this world.

Moreover, there is a big difference between forecasts that are made in the short term and those made in the long term: those in the short term are more influenced by technical analysis and market news, while those in the long term see fundamental analysis as the main vector.

Speaking of news and price analysis Nicole DeCicco, CEO of CryptoConsultz, believes that there could be significant volatility for the short-term ETH price, arguing that:

“There’s no debating the fact the upgrade will dump huge sums of ETH into the market freeing up ETH that’s been locked up through staking protocols. Assuming this is a non-event is akin to putting one’s head in the sandbox, pun intended. What these long-term investors plan to do with that ETH in the short term remains unknown but I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a negative impact on the price of ETH for those with a short-sighted outlook.”

Instead, by looking at one of the indicators most valued by traders, namely the “supertrend,” which identifies periods when the price of an asset is most likely to run up or down, we can see that we are at the beginning of a period that looks set to see Ethereum’s future price increase.

Then again, it is important to understand that this indicator arrives slightly later than the price movement of the markets and could be confusing if the results are observed early on

As for the fundamental analysis on Ethereum, there is not much to say except that it turns out to be one of the most thriving ecosystems with the most innovation in the entire crypto world.

Numerous scaling solutions such as “zk rollups” are making their debut on the industry, increasing the potential amount of transactions that can take place on the L1 and increasing scalability.

By now, the whole world, when thinking about developing an ecosystem of dApps that rely on blockchain, chooses to use the Ethereum network because of the security standards it offers and the decentralization represented by the distribution of the network’s nodes.

This must make us think about what the future of Ethereum might be 10 to 15 years from now.

It is hard to define it with certainty, but if imagined, it certainly looks like a bright future.