Ethereum posts 33% Q2 gains – What’s next for ETH’s $4,000 target?

• Ethereum gained 33.47% in Q2; eyes $4K as engagement and staking surge to record highs
• Over 35 million ETH is staked, but centralization concerns rise with Lido, Binance, and Coinbase dominance

Ethereum [ETH] is back in the spotlight after posting a stellar 33.47% gain in Q2, bringing back hopes of a climb toward the $4,000 mark by October.

Adding to this momentum, over 35 million ETH—nearly 30% of the total supply—is now staked, signaling growing user confidence and long-term commitment to the network. 

However, as Ethereum’s engagement rises, so do concerns about validator centralization: Lido, Binance, and Coinbase collectively control nearly 40% of all staked ETH.

Will ETH’s Q2 momentum hold?

Ethereum surged 33.47% in Q2 2025, rebounding sharply from a brutal 45.41% drop in Q1.

Source: X

Ethereum’s Q2 performance ranks among its strongest in recent years, trailing only 2020’s 69.62% and 2019’s 102.25% gains.

As Q3 begins, the community approaches with cautious optimism, eyeing a potential rally toward $4,000 by late October.

Source: X

Meanwhile, on-chain engagement has hit all-time highs, with weekly active addresses crossing 20.2 million in May 2025 – a 52.71% increase from the previous week, according to GrowThePie data.

Ethereum right now has all guns blazing, but that’s not all.

Staking activity surges, over 28% supply locked up

Ethereum’s shift toward a stake-secured model has hit a major milestone. Over 35.2 million ETH – about 28.3% of the total supply – is now staked, representing more than $84 billion at current prices.

According to recent data, the spike intensified in June, with over 500,000 ETH staked in just two weeks.

Source: X

This wave follows May guidance from the U.S. SEC, which eased institutional hesitation.

With around 19% of ETH held long-term, Ethereum’s circulating supply is shrinking, leading to tighter markets and increased price swings.

Centralization concerns mount

As staking climbs, questions over validator concentration are heating up. Lido controls 25.6% of all staked ETH (8.7M ETH), while Binance and Coinbase follow closely with 7.5% and 7.4% shares, respectively.

Source: Dune Analytics

Together, the trio controls nearly 40% of Ethereum’s validator power—a level of concentration that makes the network vulnerable. 

A single censorship or downtime event could disrupt over 40% of new blocks.

Meanwhile, the growing scarcity of liquid staking tokens like stETH is pushing up borrowing costs on DeFi platforms, highlighting increased risk and reduced flexibility across Ethereum’s broader financial ecosystem.