Ethereum nears $4,000 – But $127M ETH ETF outflow stirs fear!

Key Takeaways

How are institutional and smart investors reacting to Ethereum’s recent price movement? 

Institutional investors are pulling back, while smart traders are increasing long positions, signaling bullish expectations.

What technical level must Ethereum break to confirm a bullish trend?

 ETH must break above its diagonal resistance and trigger a MACD crossover to confirm bullish momentum.

Ethereum [ETH]  last traded above $4,000 on October 14. Over the past 24 hours, it has gained 2.2% and is now trading at $3,940.

Despite this upward move, investor sentiment remains divided. With ETH nearing the $4,000 mark, uncertainty looms over its next direction.

AMBCrypto has examined what this split in sentiment could mean for Ethereum’s future.

Institutional investors step back

Institutional investors have begun tilting back toward the bearish bias that defined the start of the week.

The U.S. spot ETH Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded a massive $145 million outflow on Monday, signaling renewed bearish sentiment.

However, the tone briefly shifted on Tuesday with a $141 million buyback, leaving the market in a neutral state.

Source: Sosovalue

That balance didn’t last long. By Wednesday and Thursday, sentiment turned sharply negative again. On Wednesday, investors sold $18.77 million worth of ETH, but the major shift came on the 23rd of October, when outflows surged 6.7x to $127.51 million.

Such a large reduction in exposure typically reflects a clear bearish outlook.

While institutional investors continue pulling capital from the market, smart money appears to be challenging that move with opposing bets.

Smart money pushes back

Smart traders—known for making high-conviction, profitable moves—are taking the opposite stance on Ethereum’s direction.

According to recent reports, one trader with a 100% win rate increased their long position on ETH, anticipating a bullish breakout.

At press time, the total long position on Ethereum has risen to $132.24 million in the past day.

Source: CoinGlass

Data from Hyperliquid Whale Tracker, a platform monitoring large investor activity, shows that 67% of open ETH contracts are positioned for an upside move.

This trend highlights growing confidence among smart traders, adding to the asset’s bullish momentum as they anticipate stronger price movement.

What’s next for ETH?

The chart pattern hasn’t yet confirmed a clear breakout—and ETH has seen brief declines.

Structurally, ETH shows a diagonal resistance line and a demand zone near the lower end of the chart, hinting at a possible bullish inclination. However, there’s a catch.

This same diagonal resistance has triggered price declines on five different occasions. With ETH currently testing this level, the pattern poses a potential threat to its short-term rally.

Source: TradingView

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has been trending upward, with the MACD line (blue) approaching a crossover above the signal line (orange).

If this crossover occurs while ETH breaks above the descending resistance, it would signal confirmation for the bulls. Otherwise, the asset could face another pullback.