Ethereum breaks 17-month consolidation – Why analysts say $3.6K is next!

For much of the past year, Ethereum’s price action has tested investor patience.

As the native asset of the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, ETH has largely drifted without direction, delivering muted returns and offering little in the way of sustained bullish momentum.

From August 2024 to date—a span of roughly 17 months—ETH has gained about 39%. That performance equates to an average monthly return of just 2.29%, a modest outcome by crypto market standards.

Still, sentiment appears to be turning, and the early signs suggest Ethereum may be preparing for a stronger phase.

A divergence worth watching

That shift is becoming clearer on the charts.

In a recent technical outlook, Swissblock analyst Henrik Zeberg highlighted a developing divergence in Ethereum’s [ETH] price structure that could serve as a catalyst for a broader rally.

The observation followed a viral post showing that Bitfinex whales—deep-pocketed investors—had accumulated sizable long positions on ETH, signaling growing conviction at higher levels.

Reacting to the data, Zeberg wrote:

“Wait for it……! ETH will SOAR!”

Source: TradingView

The accompanying chart showed ETH trading within a descending consolidation channel, while its Relative Strength Index (RSI) trended higher along an ascending support line on the weekly timeframe. This divergence suggested weakening downside pressure despite the subdued price action.

Historically, similar setups have often preceded price recoveries.

ETH has already made an initial move by breaking above resistance within the descending channel. If momentum holds, a sustained push higher could follow.

Exchange data supports the bullish case

Beyond technicals, on-chain exchange metrics indicate that Ethereum’s economic dynamics are shifting in favor of accumulation.

Exchange-Depositing Addresses—a metric that tracks the number of wallets sending ETH to exchanges—have declined sharply. This suggests that fewer holders are preparing to sell, reducing near-term distribution pressure.

The metric, at the time of writing, stood near 18 million, a notable drop from recent levels. The trend implies that more investors are opting to hold ETH rather than move it onto exchanges.

Source: CryptoQuant

At the same time, Ethereum’s Exchange Supply Ratio has continued to fall. As of press time, it sat at 0.137, and the ratio showed a steady reduction in ETH Reserves held on trading platforms.

Lower Exchange Reserves typically translate to reduced sell-side liquidity, a condition that often supports price strength during periods of rising demand. The tightening availability of ETH on exchanges could remain a key driver of upside momentum.

DeFi activity adds stability

Ethereum’s decentralized finance ecosystem also presents a supportive backdrop.

DeFi activity has remained stable, reinforcing the view that capital is not exiting the network despite recent market volatility.

Total value locked (TVL) has held within a defined range since November. After dropping to $64.66 billion following a sharp market pullback, Ethereum’s TVL has recovered to roughly $69.95 billion according to DeFiLlama.

TVL tracks the amount of capital locked within DeFi protocols and serves as a broad measure of network health. The $5.29 billion increase over this period points to steady inflows and sustained user engagement.

While the recovery has been measured rather than explosive, it reflects resilience. If capital inflows continue at this pace, they could further strengthen market confidence and reinforce Ethereum’s improving outlook.

Final Thoughts

• Ethereum [ETH] is showing a clear upside bias on the charts, with bullish divergence across key indicators and price patterns suggesting a potential trend reversal.
• On the economic side, on-chain activity points to a gradual shift in investor behavior, with market positioning increasingly favoring the bulls.