ETH Technical Analysis Feb 3

ETH’s 24-hour trading volume has reached 31 billion dollars, trading well above recent period averages; this situation indicates strong market participation supporting the price’s 3.62% rise alongside oversold RSI (27.96) and gives potential accumulation signals.

Volume Profile and Market Participation

ETH’s current volume profile stands out with 31.05 billion dollars in trading volume over the last 24 hours. This level is approximately twice the 7-day average volume and has created specific enthusiasm for ETH despite the general market stagnation. The high volume is particularly concentrated during the hours when the price bounced from the 2,157 dollar support level; this shows that both retail investors and institutional participants have entered the market.

From a market participation perspective, this 3.62% daily rise within the downtrend is supported by a healthy volume increase. While the average daily volume is in the 15-20 billion dollar range, today’s surge confirms real demand behind the price movement. However, the overall trend is still bearish (Supertrend resistance at 2,824 dollars) and the price is below EMA20 (2,785 dollars); thus, monitoring whether the volume increase is sustainable is critical.

In the volume profile, the Value Area High (VAH) level forms around 2,395 dollars, while the Point of Control (POC) approaches 2,346 dollars. This implies that buyers are becoming aggressive at lower levels and seller pressure is decreasing. As a divergence, volume is rising as price makes lows – a classic base formation signal.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signals

Signals in favor of accumulation are strong: despite RSI at 27.96 being in the oversold region, a volume explosion is occurring. This suggests that smart money is accumulating at low levels. Particularly, volume clustering at 2,157 dollars (support with 74/100 score) and 2,346 dollars shows that institutions are striving to hold this area.

In the last 3 days’ MTF volume analysis, 2 support levels on the 1D timeframe have been confirmed with volume. Volume decreased during price declines, but rose 3-fold in today’s upward move – a typical accumulation pattern. If volume EMAs cross upwards, the accumulation phase is confirmed and the 3,000 dollar target approaches.

Distribution Risks

Distribution risk still exists: MACD shows a negative histogram and price is still below EMA20. If the rise is not supported by volume (e.g., if volume drops tomorrow), this could be a bull trap rally. Although there are 3 supports on the 1W timeframe, 3R (resistance) levels dominate; if 2,395 dollars cannot be broken, distribution accelerates and the 1,000 dollar bearish target comes into play.

Warning signal: Low-volume rises after high-volume decline days signal distribution, but here it’s the opposite – cautious optimism.

Price-Volume Confluence

Price movement is largely in line with volume: The 3.62% bounce within the downtrend has been confirmed with 31 billion dollars in volume. Healthy volume should be high on up days and low on down days – exactly what’s happening here. No divergence; volume faded as price fell and exploded as it rose.

Unhealthy scenario: Volume decrease on rises (before climax selling). It looks healthy now, but if Supertrend remains bearish, divergence may form. If 13 strong levels in MTF (1D:2S/2R, 3D:2S/3R, 1W:3S/2R) are reinforced with volume, trend reversal is near.

Big Player Activity

Institutional activity patterns indicate that more than 40% of the high volume comes from whale wallets. According to on-chain data, large transfers in the last 24 hours have targeted support levels. This suggests whales are bottom fishing – for example, exchange inflows around 2,157 dollars have decreased.

However, exact positions are unknown; only patterns: Volume spikes can resemble distribution before resistance. BTC dominance increase is unsettling ETH whales, but ETH’s volume superiority (twice BTC’s relative) shows local strength. Watch: ETH Spot Analysis and ETH Futures Analysis for details.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at 78,843 dollars +2.40% is following ETH, but Supertrend is bearish and dominance increase is a warning for altcoins. ETH reacts more sharply to BTC declines (beta >1); if BTC breaks 78,691 support, ETH falls to 2,157. Conversely, if BTC breaks 79,269 resistance, ETH tests 2,395 – correlation 0.85, BTC levels critical.

Volume-Based Outlook

Volume-based outlook is optimistic-indecisive: High participation supports accumulation, bullish target 3,000 dollars. In bearish scenario, volume drop leads to 1,000 dollars. Key: If volume holds average, reversal; if it falls, downtrend continues. If oversold bounce continues, opportunity for spot/futures positions – details in links.