ETH retraces after ATH: Can returning buyers push Ethereum back above $4.8K?

Key Takeaways

Ethereum rallied to a new ATH of $4955, then retraced to $4633 at press time. The altcoin experienced intense speculative capital, positioning it for a significant move to the upside or downside.

Ethereum [ETH] rallied to a new all-time high of $4955, before retracing to a local low of $4613. At press time, Ethereum was trading at $4633, marking a 2.75% dip over the past day.

The recent jump to a new ATH has left crypto analysts talking about Ethereum’s prospects. Among them is Alphractal analysts who projected significant price movement, citing increased capital inflow. 

Capital inflow into Ethereum heats up 

According to Alphractal, two primary metrics have signaled massive speculative strength in Ethereum.

For starters, Ethereum’s Realized Cap Impulse indicated that long-term realized capitalization expanded significantly. 

Source: Alphractal

Often, when this metric expands, it signals solid capital inflows and supply-demand dynamics that significantly support price movements.  

At the same time, Ethereum’s Market Temperature indicated market heating, with three main things showing up.

This implied that Ethereum investors were massively active, with market sentiment remaining elevated, while the risk of volatility rose. 

Source: Alphractal

This set up positions in Ethereum for major price moves in the short term, either to the upside or downside. 

Profitability at historical levels

Amid massive capital inflow, Ethereum long-term investors have enjoyed enormous profit margins. According to Santiment, Ethereum’s MVRV Long Short Difference has surged to a yearly high of 31.54%. 

Source: Santiment

Usually, when this metric spikes, it indicates LTH’s profit margins have outpaced STH’s. LTH’s unrealized profit is relatively high.

So, long-term holders are highly confident in the market and not offloading despite the rally.  

Institutional buyers are taking a break

Surprisingly, while Ethereum has rallied to an all-time high, institutional investors have taken a step back. 

According to CryptoQuant, Ethereum has recorded four days of negative Coinbase Premium Index.

On the 25th of August, this index declined -0.0058, suggesting a massive demand drop from institutions, especially U.S. investors.

Source: CryptoQuant

Over the past three months, this metric mainly remained positive, which coincided with Ethereum’s recent rally. Now, despite increased capital flow from other players, U.S. institutions are sitting on the sidelines. 

As U.S. investors take a step back, sellers jumped into the market to fill the emerging gap. Ethereum’s Taker Buy Sell Ratio data from CryptoQuant showed massive seller dominance. 

Source: CryptoQuant

At press time, the ratio had declined to a 7-month low of 0.85, reflecting rising seller dominance. 

What’s next for ETH?

According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, Ethereum recently spiked to an all-time high as speculative capital inflow skyrocketed.

At the same time, the altcoin shortly retraced as sellers returned to the market, causing downward pressure while institutions paused.

These market conditions leave ETH at a crossroads as buyers return and displace sellers, as witnessed over the past day. ETH will bounce back, reclaim $4.8k resistance, and target a new high.

However, if buying activity from large entities remains low while sellers dominate, we could see further correction, with ETH dropping to $4.5k.