- Ethereum maintains higher highs and lows, showing constructive short-term momentum.
- Key EMAs near $3,070 support bullish structure, limiting immediate downside risk.
- Futures and spot flows indicate cautious positioning despite ongoing recovery attempts.
Ethereum is extending its recovery on the 4-hour chart as buyers continue to defend key short-term support zones. After rebounding from the late-December low near $2,770, ETH has formed a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Consequently, short-term momentum remains constructive, even as price approaches an area where selling pressure could increase.
Ethereum Holds Key Moving Averages as Resistance Nears
Ethereum is trading above its 20-period and 50-period exponential moving averages on the 4-hour chart. Additionally, the 100-EMA and 200-EMA near the $3,070 region continue to act as a critical structural base. This confluence supports the broader bullish structure and limits downside risk for now.
However, price is moving into a dense resistance cluster. The $3,227 to $3,250 zone marks a recent swing high, where sellers previously stepped in.
Moreover, the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement near $3,305 stands as a key technical hurdle. A clean break above this level could open room toward the $3,450 region.
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On the downside, immediate support rests near $3,191, aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. Further weakness could pull ETH toward the $3,130 area, where the Supertrend and 50-EMA intersect. A loss of the $3,070 level would weaken the bullish bias and expose $2,950 next.
Futures Market Signals Controlled Risk Appetite
Ethereum futures open interest continues to reflect long-term participation growth, although recent behavior shows moderation. Open interest expanded aggressively during major rallies in 2024 and early 2025, peaking near $60 billion. However, corrections reduced leverage without triggering a full unwind.
Significantly, open interest now holds above $40 billion as price consolidates near $3,300. This pattern suggests traders are repositioning rather than exiting. Consequently, leverage risk appears lower, while the market prepares for a potential volatility expansion.
Spot Flows Point to Cautious Investor Behavior
Inflows supported earlier rallies toward the $4,000 to $4,800 range, yet those moves lacked durability. Moreover, sustained outflows have dominated since September, aligning with repeated price pullbacks.
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Additionally, recent net outflows exceeding $100 million highlight ongoing distribution. Even during short-term rebounds, selling pressure persisted. Hence, spot participants appear selective, waiting for clearer confirmation before increasing exposure at current Ethereum price levels.
Technical Outlook for Ethereum (ETH)
Key levels remain well-defined for Ethereum as price consolidates above critical support on the short-term charts.
Upside levels sit at $3,227–$3,250 as the first resistance zone, followed by $3,305 at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. A confirmed breakout above this cluster could open the path toward $3,450.
On the downside, $3,191 serves as the first pullback support, with $3,130 acting as a key confluence zone. The major support level remains $3,070, where the 100-EMA and 200-EMA align.
The technical structure suggests Ethereum is holding within a controlled bullish trend rather than a compression pattern. Momentum indicators remain constructive, yet price is nearing areas where profit-taking often appears.
Will Ethereum Move Higher?
The near-term ETH price outlook depends on whether buyers can defend $3,070 and absorb selling near $3,250. Sustained strength could drive a continuation toward $3,305 and $3,450.
However, a loss of $3,070 would weaken the bullish bias and expose $2,950–$2,900. Ethereum now trades in a decisive zone, where confirmation will shape the next directional move.
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