ETH Analysis: 7 key levels to watch after this week’s dip

ETH analysis in summary:

D1 neutral — price below 20/50 EMA, above 200 EMA.
RSI 43.86 → mild downside bias; momentum fragile.
MACD improving — histogram positive, but trend still weak.
This ETH Analysis highlights 7 levels likely to guide the next move.

Multi-timeframe ETH Analysis

D1 (daily)

EMAs — Price at 3,892.03 USDT sits below the 20 EMA (4,011.84) and 50 EMA (4,103.34), but above the 200 EMA (3,628.81). This mixed stack says medium trend is soft while the long-term uptrend still holds.

RSI 43.86 — below 50, showing sellers have a slight edge. Buyers look hesitant until RSI reclaims the midline.

MACD — line -69.45 vs signal -80.63 with a +11.18 histogram. Momentum is stabilizing; a crossover would strengthen the recovery case.

Bollinger Bands — price trades under the middle band (3,965.23) and well above the lower band (3,707.80). That implies downside risk remains, but bands are not stretched.

ATR 182.71 — volatility is moderate; risk control matters as daily swings near 180–190 points are common.

Pivots — PP at 3,893.42, R1 at 3,947.35, S1 at 3,838.11. Closes above PP would hint at a firmer bid; below S1 would invite pressure.

H1 (hourly)

Bias — Close at 3,892.03 is below the 20/50/200 EMA (3,929.87/3,978.66/3,989.99). Intraday trend leans lower; rallies may meet supply.

RSI 40.65 — momentum is soft intraday, aligning with the bearish regime.

MACD — line -26.19 near signal -27.05, histogram +0.86. Selling is fading, but buyers haven’t seized control.

Bollinger — mid at 3,926.55, lower at 3,865.49. Price oscillates in the lower half, signaling cautious bids.

ATR 38.06 — short-term volatility favors tight risk bands for scalps.

M15 (15‑min)

Micro trend — Price under 20/50/200 EMA (3,903.20/3,915.68/3,984.28). Micro structure is still heavy.

RSI 43.09 — sellers slightly in control; momentum could flip if RSI beats 50.

MACD — line -7.68 below signal -5.44, histogram -2.24. Bearish micro impulse persists.

Bollinger — mid at 3,910.91, lower at 3,874.23. Price hugging mid-to-lower area suggests supply on upticks.

ATR 15.88 — compression pockets appear; small breaks can travel 15–20 points quickly.

Takeaway — D1 is neutral, H1/M15 lean bearish. Overall, a cautious structure where liquidity pockets can flip direction, but the burden of proof remains on buyers.

Key levels — 7 to watch

Level	Type	Bias/Note
3,628.81	EMA200 (D1)	Major trend support; long-term line in the sand
3,707.80	Bollinger low (D1)	Volatility support; a tag risks oversold bounces
3,838.11	Pivot S1 (D1)	First downside trigger if lost
3,893.42	Pivot PP (D1)	Daily balance; above it, tone improves
3,947.35	Pivot R1 (D1)	Breakout confirmation level
3,965.23	Bollinger mid (D1)	Mean reversion magnet; reclaim to steady trend
4,011.84	EMA20 (D1)	First moving-average resistance for bulls

Trading scenarios — ETH Analysis Playbook

Bullish

Trigger: 1H close above 3,947.35 (R1) and follow‑through toward 3,965.23 (mid band). Target: 3,965.23 → 4,011.84 (EMA20). Invalidation: return below 3,893.42 (PP). Risk: consider stops 0.5–1.0× ATR (D1 182.71) as volatility buffer.

ETH Bearish analysis

Trigger: loss of 3,838.11 (S1) on a D1 close or sustained trade below. Target: 3,707.80 (lower band) → 3,628.81 (EMA200). Invalidation: reclaim 3,893.42 (PP). Risk: use 0.5–1.0× ATR (D1) to avoid whipsaws near pivots.

ETH Neutral analysis (main)

Trigger: price oscillates between 3,838.11 and 3,947.35 while D1 RSI holds 40–50. Target: mean reversion toward 3,893.42 to 3,965.23. Invalidation: D1 close beyond either band with momentum confirmation. Risk: scale size using ATR on the active timeframe (H1 38.06; M15 15.88).

Market context

Total crypto cap: 3,804,968,077,170.78 USD; 24h change: -2.53%. BTC dominance: 57.63%. Fear & Greed: 34 (Fear). High dominance and fear usually weigh on altcoins like Ethereum; rebounds tend to be selective.

Context read — With macro jitters and a cautious tone, the Ethereum future path likely hinges on regaining D1 mid-band and short EMAs.

Ethereum Ecosystem and DeFi

DEX fees — Uniswap V3 1d fees up 11.64% while Uniswap V2 and V4 show softer 1w/1m trends. Curve DEX stands out with +62.03% (1d) and +96.65% (7d). Fluid DEX posts +20.51% (1d) but weaker 30d. Mixed activity implies rotation across venues.

Takeaway — Elevated Curve activity vs. flatter Uniswap cohorts hints at selective liquidity seeking stability; participation remains uneven across DeFi.