BitMine Buys $29M Ethereum as Kalshi $5K Odds Drop 34%

BitMine has made a fresh bet on Ethereum, acquiring 7,660 ETH worth about $29 million from Galaxy Digital. The large inflow into BitMine’s wallet highlights renewed institutional appetite for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency despite growing caution in retail markets.

Institutions Accumulate Ethereum While Retail Traders Turn Bearish

According to Arkham data, the transactions occurred with Galaxy Digital sending two separate batches of 3,818 ETH and 3,842 ETH to BitMine’s primary address (0xa7a). Based on the accumulation move, institutions are still targeting medium-term profits in Ethereum. The firm’s inflow is the latest in BitMine’s history of large-scale ETH acquisitions, including over $820 million worth of the token in a recent purchase.

However, retail bias is weakening. Continual Ethereum purchases by BitMine and other similar purchases often prelude a shortage of the token on crypto exchanges.

Kalshi’s latest prediction-market data paints a very different mood. Traders on the platform now assign only a 34% chance that Ethereum will reach $5,000 by the end of the year. It is down sharply from more than 40% just a month ago.

The drop indicates continued uncertainties in macroeconomic conditions, Federal Reserve policy on rate cuts, and broader on-chain activity. Recently, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell revealed that there’s an unlikely chance that there would be further Fed rate cuts this year again.

It is clear that there is a divergence between the flows of prediction-market and on-chain flows. During retail pullbacks, whales usually accumulate before the upward momentum starts again. Hence, the acquisition by BitMine may be an indication of the initial phase of wider institutional ETH purchases.

Analysts Predict ETH Price Rally

Meanwhile, market analyst Ted Pillows noted that the company has been purchasing $200 million to $300 million in Ethereum every week. According to Pillows, “a few more buyers like that, and an ETH reversal could happen.” His observation aligns with a growing belief among analysts that consistent institutional buying may soon offset weak retail sentiment.

Adding to the optimism, popular crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe shared his outlook on Ethereum. He said the network’s broader ecosystem remains one of the strongest investment themes heading into 2026.

The analyst predicted ETH could soon reach a new all-time high “north of $5,000” once momentum builds across its layer-2 networks. Also, analysts are projecting a $5,000 price zone for ETH following the Fusaka upgrade plan.

Van de Poppe’s analysis contrasts with Kalshi’s bearish crowd view. This suggests that major traders still expect Ethereum’s ecosystem to outperform once risk sentiment improves. At the time of writing, ETH price is around $3,780, down about 1.2% in the past 24 hours.