A whale sells 7.6K ETH – So why didn’t Ethereum break down?

Selling pressure built from two angles, ETFs and whale supply — it all arrived at the same price zone.

U.S. ETH spot ETFs posted -$19.41M in daily net outflows, while the market digested a whale sale of 7,621 ETH worth $23.85M near $3,129 over the past three days.

That kind of stacked supply usually forces a sharper flush, especially when traders are already lean and cautious.

Source: SosoValue

Instead, Ethereum kept trading as if buyers were waiting for that supply on purpose.

Spot and Futures flow readings leant negative across multiple short windows, yet price action stayed controlled, with limited follow-through to the downside.

ETH hovering around the realized price made the message louder; sellers showed up, but demand absorbed the hit and refused to hand bears momentum.

Who’s buying all this ETH?

ETF outflows stayed orderly, pointing to rotation rather than panic. Whale transfers added supply, yet the price didn’t crack, a clear sign of absorption.

Source: CoinGlass

Spot and Futures data showed Ethereum [ETH] continuing to leave exchanges on a net basis.

That outflow profile avoided any liquidation cascade and kept ETH steady around the realized price, locking the market in “sell gets met” mode.

Realized Price still acts like a springboard

Ethereum’s realized price has repeatedly marked inflection points across prior cycles, with strong upside expansions following once sell pressure exhausts.

ETH now sits on that same zone again, and the current reaction matches the historical behavior, price stabilizes first, then volatility expands.

Source: CryptoQuant

That sets up a clean read for traders.

If the realized price keeps holding while supply keeps getting absorbed, the market often shifts from distribution into accumulation. If the realized price fails, the chart typically searches for the next demand pocket.

Momentum tightens, and structure decides the next leg

Since the $2,632 sell-off, Ethereum has maintained an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. RSI holds in the low 40s, which fits consolidation rather than a full breakdown.

On MACD, the blue line keeps moving closer to the orange signal line, and bulls need that crossover sooner rather than later to avoid additional downside bleed.

Source: TradingView

Ascending support remains the clean trigger. A bounce keeps $3,600 in play.

A loss of $2,973 weakens the setup and increases the odds of a deeper retrace toward the 50% Fibonacci zone, where buyers previously reacted.

Final Thoughts

• Realized Price remains the battlefield where absorption either holds or fails.
•  MACD convergence and ascending support will decide whether ETH expands or bleeds.