3 reasons why Ethereum’s ATH is closer than you think

Key Takeaways

Ethereum is executing an accumulation-led rally, mirroring Bitcoin’s pre-ATH setup. With 40% to reclaim, the question now is if ETH can close the gap before Q4 ends.

Less than two weeks into Q3, and Ethereum [ETH] is already outperforming Bitcoin [BTC]. In fact, it has clocked an 18.63% ROI from its $2,468 open, more than double BTC’s return over the same stretch.

According to AMBCrypto, while Bitcoin’s breakout catalyzed a risk-on shift, Ethereum’s outperformance reflects more than simple beta rotation — it marks a structurally driven divergence.

Ethereum is actively weaponizing volatility, flipping it from a market risk into a strategic lever for price discovery.

Ethereum turns volatility into competitive edge

Bitcoin’s third all-time high this year is less about market momentum and more about structural positioning.

As of now, around 10.2% of the 21 million BTC supply sits with institutions, governments, and corporations. These are holders not typically shaken out by price swings.

This shift is critical. Every wave of volatility leads to more BTC getting locked away, reinforcing price upside.

It’s a key driver behind Bitcoin’s 60% rally in three months, pushing it to $118k, despite macro headwinds suppressing broader risk-on flows.

Ethereum, meanwhile, is following a similar structural playbook to Bitcoin.

Over the last 30 days, net new ETH issuance was just 73,202 ETH, while ETH ETFs alone saw 725,000 ETH in net inflows. That’s 10x more demand than supply.

Source: Ultrasound.money

What’s especially notable is the timing. This surge in ETF inflows occurred during a 20%+ price correction, following ETH’s local top near $2,800.

So while retail was on edge, institutions kept buying, just like they did back when ETH bottomed near $1,385 earlier this cycle. 

In a way, smart money is viewing Ethereum’s volatility as a buying window, scooping up more ETH while the broader market hesitates. Could this outperformance, then, be more than just a short-term edge?

A new phase of price discovery

The impact of this structural shift is clearly reflected in Ethereum’s price action. Since the 22nd of June, ETH has rallied by an impressive 40%, doubling Bitcoin’s 20% gain over the same period. 

In doing so, Ethereum decisively broke through the $2,800 resistance, reclaiming levels last seen in early February, all while the 30-day whale address count declined by 15%.

What’s absorbing this volatility?  Institutional capital. ETHA exposure among Wall Street giants is accelerating, with Goldman Sachs leading at 6.5 million shares valued at $128 million. 

Source: X

In fact, the top five holders now command over $288 million in ETH-linked exposure. It is a clear indication that institutional conviction in ETH is deepening, turning its volatility from a threat into a supply-side squeeze.

Consequently, that dynamic is pushing Ethereum further along its path toward price discovery. With this kind of structural setup, ETH’s 40% gap to its all-time high may close quicker than the market expects.