Will the stock market drop 20% or 48% from the peak? Here’s the key factor, says this strategist.

Read: Markets haven’t acted like this since 1981 — and here’s how that played out

No doubt, Wall Street has been ratcheting stock forecasts lower in recent months. On the side of optimists, JPMorgan’s ever-stoic top equity strategist Marko Kolanovic told Bloomberg (in an interview before Wednesday) that equities will “climb out of this hole,” as recession and stagflation fears are overblown.

Indeed, our call of the day from Evercore strategists says that markets are spiraling on the view that recession is a foregone conclusion. They also say that panicky, leveraged retail investors who have been behind this selloff, should calm down soonish as the pros aren’t running scared (yet).

“On Thursday, we will get an idea whether the market action is part of a volatile bottoming process, our base case, or whether the decline could materially undercut SPX 3,854, triggering a capitulation trade,” notes the Evercore team, led by Julian Emanuel.

Offering their view of what’s been happening with this selloff, Emanuel and the team argue that markets have been caught up in Fed “misdirection,” rallying despite hawkish remarks from Chair Jerome Powell, then giving it all back a day later, echoing what happened after the early-May Fed meeting.

What’s key here is not whether markets understand the Fed’s intent, but “whether a recession in 2022-23 is avoidable in combating generationally elevated inflation, with the only experience previously being the Volcker Fed tightening (1971-81) to the point where multiple recessions were an inevitability.”

Emanuel and the team don’t think the Fed needs to precipitate a recession, but say stocks are behaving like it does.

“The distinction is critical. The last three non-Recession Bear Markets declined on average -21.3% — 2018 a ‘V’ bottom, 2011 and 1998 a ‘W’ — though none registered as an ‘official’ Bear. The last three Recession Bear Markets (2020, 2007-09, 2000-02) declined on average -47.9%,” says Evercore.

Panicky investors, notably on the retail side (they’ve been blamed before), should calm down soonish, it says.

Read: A larger share of younger investors say they’re not afraid to buy the dip in the pursuit of long-term gains — but there’s one big caveat

“We continue to expect the Public (whose job prospects remain robust and
balance sheets healthy) liquidating its Margin Debt to yield to the contrary signals/Misdirection of depressed sentiment and defensive professional positioning, stabilizing stocks in the days ahead,” say the strategists.

The buzz

Cisco Systems
CSCO,
-13.44%
is on track to open at its weakest since late 2020 as China’s COVID-19 lockdowns battered its outlook.

After Walmart
WMT,
-1.93%
and Target
TGT,
-3.97%
downbeat results this week, Kohl’s
KSS,
+4.88%
is down on weak earnings and slashed forecasts, a day after two executives left. Bed Bath & Beyond
BBBY,
+9.72%
stock also down on weak guidance from late Wednesday.

Read: Wednesday’s worst-performing stocks mostly come from this one sector that has investors really worried

Once a top-rated hedge fund, Melvin Capital, is closing its doors.

The latest weekly jobless claims report showed a rise of 21,000, while the Philly Fed manufacturing report tumbled sharply to 2.6 in May from 17.6 in prior month. Existing home sales and leading indicators are still to come.

A case of monkey pox has been identified in Massachusetts, with officials probing links to the rare disease from a spate of outbreaks in Europe.

The markets

Stocks
DJIA,
+0.13%

SPX,
+0.44%

COMP,
+0.94%
are headed south, along with bond yields
TMUBMUSD10Y,
2.856%

TMUBMUSD02Y,
2.619%.
Oil
CL00,
+2.59%,
the dollar
DXY,
-1.05%
and the whole crypto space
BTCUSD,
+3.30%
are weaker. Gold
GC00,
+1.28%
is up nearly 1%.

The tickers

These were the most-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern Time:

The chart

Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Markets, is keeping an eye on one big name for Thursday — Apple
AAPL,
-1.21%
— and advises investors do the same.

“If this stock breaks support at $139, it’s probably lights out for the entire stock market. That would create a lower low for Apple, a breach of support, and set up a drop to around $123. I don’t see how the entire market doesn’t follow Apple lower at that point,” said Kramer.

Random reads

A rural Japanese town’s COVID-19 relief money was mistakenly sent to a guy who gambled it all away.

Former President George W. Bush made a rather large Freudian slip.

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