Why $30 Million Is Decent Debut For Brad Pitt Movie

Sony reported an opening weekend estimate of $30 million for their $90 million action-comedy Bullet Train, which is right in the middle of essentially $25-$35 million pre-release guestimates. Amusingly enough, back in early 2022, while we were all watching the wave of late-2021/early-2022 biggies (West Side Story, The Matrix Resurrections, Death on the Nile, etc.) die in theaters as all roads pointed to Spider-Man: No Way Home and Sing 2, a new-to-you, R-rated, adult-skewing Brad Pitt actioner pulling a $30 million opening would have been a pie-in-the-sky result.

That Top Gun: Maverick has been pulling James Cameron-worthy legs, and that Sandra Bullock and Channing Tatum’s The Lost City opened with $30 million, doesn’t make this result for Bullet Train any less impressive. In terms of a Pitt vehicle without a significant co-star, it’s pretty much best-case scenario. Not counting his cameos in Deadpool 2 and The Lost City or DreamWorks’ Megamind, The Lost City ranks ninth among Pitt openings. Most of the next eight had elements that made them more than just a Brad Pitt vehicle.

That’s below Ocean’s Thirteen ($36 million in 2007), Interview With the Vampire ($36 million in 1994), Inglorious Basterds ($38 million in 2009), Ocean’s 11 ($38 million in 2001), Ocean’s 12 ($39 million in 2004), Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood ($41 million in 2019), Troy ($44 million in 2004), Mr. and Mrs. Smith ($50 million in 2005) and World War Z ($66 million in 2013). They had A-level co-stars (Leonardo DiCaprio, Tom Cruise, Angelina Jolie, etc.), marquee directors (two Quentin Tarantino films and a Steven Soderbergh trilogy), popular source material and high concepts (worldwide zombie plagues, gay vampires, etc.).

That’s not a knock. Movie stars, high concepts, marquee directors, and maybe some offscreen controversy (”Is Tom Cruise right for Lestat?” “Wanna go watch Brad Pitt and Jennifer Aniston’s marriage implode in real-time?”) were how you got a hit movie. Like most of yesteryear’s movie stars, Pitt came of age when an over/under $13 million opening for 12 Monkeys, Legends of the Fall or Se7en was an unqualified win. In 2001, a $20 million debut for Pitt and Roberts’ The Mexican was a relative win.

Moreover, he spent a few years after Se7en in what he called the “killing Tristin Ludlow” period, where he tried to shed his matinee idol status with commercially challenging films like Sleepers, The Devils Own, Seven Years in Tibet and Fight Club. By 2004, even after Ocean’s 11, the mere idea of Pitt leaning into his golden god persona to play Achilles in Wolfgang Peterson’s Troy (which grossed $456 million worldwide) was an event. Ditto World War Z ($550 million) in the summer of 2013.

Bullet Train is a comparative rarity in his filmography because it’s a wholly commercial play and primarily a Brad Pitt vehicle. Yes, he’s surrounded by known or well-liked supporting players like Joey King, Bad Bunny, Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Bryan Tyree Henry, but Pitt is the only ‘butts in seats’ draw in that large cast. Yes, action junkies know David Leitch as the man who co-directed John Wick and then helmed Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2 and Hobbs & Shaw, but he’s not a Tarantino-level household name.

The closest thing we’ve seen to Bullet Train in Pitt’s remotely recent filmography is Fury, the R-rated, World War II tank action drama helmed by David Ayer in October of 2014. That ensemble war flick co-starred Shia LaBeouf, Logan Lerman, Jon Bernthal and Scott Eastwood, and yeah, Pitt was the only draw there too. The Sony release opened with $24 million, which adjusted for inflation would be around $27 million. As such, Bullet Train opened with what was expected from a non-franchise, nostalgia-free, non-prestige Brad Pitt star vehicle.

Tom Cruise is usually good for $30-$40 million in the likes of Edge of Tomorrow, The Mummy and Oblivion when he’s not playing Ethan Hunt or Pete Mitchell. Most Dwayne Johnson star vehicles that aren’t Fast Saga flicks (Rampage, Jungle Cruise, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, etc.) open with around $30-$40 million. Unlike Cruise or Will Smith, Pitt doesn’t have a prior marquee character to fall back upon. $30 million for Bullet Train is better than $20 million for Ad Astra and Moneyball or $13 million for Allied.

It’s also Pitt’s first #1 opening weekend since Fury and his second since Inglorious Basterds 13 years ago. I’m expecting decent legs. The Hitman’s Bodyguard grossed $75 million from a $21 million debut in 2017. S.W.A.T. earned $117 million from a $37 million launch in 2003. Both benefited from being the last tentpoles of the season. If I can celebrate The Lost City (featuring a cameo from Brad Pitt) opening with $30 million, I will celebrate Bullet Train (featuring a cameo from Bullock) opening with $30 million.