Vergil Ortiz Vs. ‘Mean Machine’ Kavaliauskas: Odds, Records, Prediction

Vergil Ortiz might eventually be the best welterweight in the world, and this Saturday, Ortiz will continue on his path to potential 147-pound fame by facing another tough challenger in Egis “Mean Machine” Kavaliauskas. Like his last fight vs. Maurice Hooker, it could test Ortiz like never before. Here’s everything you need to know about Vergil Ortiz vs. Egis “Mean Machine” Kavaliauskas, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

In March, Ortiz faced his toughest opponent yet, and though Maurice Hooker provided a stern test, Ortiz passed it impressively, stopping Hooker in the seventh round. In the process, Ortiz kept his perfect record against a former world titlist. Though Kavaliauskas lost his only title shot two years ago, Ortiz can compare himself to one of the best fighters in the game with a victory against him.

That’s because Terence Crawford, a potential 147-pound opponent for Ortiz at some point in the future, faced Kavaliauskas in 2019 and stopped him in the seventh round. If Ortiz knocks him out quicker, that would say something rather impressive.

“I always said I’m here to take on the toughest challenges to prove myself,” Ortiz said. “Egis is a very game, strong opponent, and a win over him would leave no doubts that I’m ready for a world title fight immediately. It won’t be easy, but that’s the point. The fans are going to enjoy this one.”

Ortiz is prepared for a Kavaliauskas who will try to throw awkward powerful shots and catch Ortiz off guard. But he also said his opponent could provide a nice learning experience. Kavaliauskas, of course, wants a little bit more than that.

“I know his style and he knows mine,” Kavaliauskas said. “Styles make fights. I like that he is a fighter that brings it, and I am not surprised he took the fight. He is a warrior, as am I.”   

And that could make for an interesting bout on an exciting weekend of boxing (don’t forget about John Riel Casimero vs. Guillermo Rigondeaux on Showtime and Joshua Franco vs. Andrew Moloney III on ESPN).

Here’s more info on the Vergil Ortiz vs. “Mean Machine” Kavaliauskas showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on DAZN beginning at 8 p.m. ET.

Vergil Ortiz vs. “Mean Machine” Kavaliauskas odds

Ortiz is a big betting favorite at -1000 (wager $1,000 to win $100), while Kavaliauskas stands at +600 (earn $600 on a $100 bet). It’s probably not worth betting either money line. Kavaliauskas was +550 earlier in the week, and if he were to get to, say, +800 or even +700, which you could actually find as of Friday afternoon, that’d be a solid place to take a flier on the underdog.

Otherwise, I’d look for a prop bet of Ortiz winning by stoppage. Ortiz is -334 to get the KO/TKO (which I would probably only use in a parlay situation), but a better bet might be to get Ortiz by stoppage in rounds 4-6 at +260 or in rounds 7-9 at +300.

If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend’s action of boxing (and this is only for entertainment purposes), I might take Ortiz to beat Kavaliauskas by stoppage at -334, for Raushee Warren and Damien Vazquez to go the distance at -400 and for Andrew Moloney to beat Joshua Franco at -225. Overall, that parlay stands at +134, and though that’s not a great payout, I’m fairly confident all three results will happen.

Vergil Ortiz vs. “Mean Machine” Kavaliauskas records

Ortiz has been perfect in his career, going 17-0 with 17 KOs. While his victory vs. Hooker was his most impressive yet, at least from the perspective that he was facing a world-class opponent, he’s had four really nice wins in a row (against Samuel Vargas, Brad Solomon and Antonio Orozco). So far in his career, none of Ortiz’s opponents have seen the start of the eighth round.

Kavaliauskas fell to Crawford, but otherwise, he’s been a winning machine. He’s 22-1-1, and his 18 KOs to go with it attest that he’s got good power. Kavaliauskas has solid victories against Juan Carlos Abreu and David Avanesyan. But thanks to a draw with Ray Robinson, Kavaliauskas has only won twice in his past four bouts.

Vergil Ortiz vs. “Mean Machine” Kavaliauskas prediction

If Ortiz is a good as we think he is—and we think he’s very good indeed—I wouldn’t be surprised to see him blast through Kavaliauskas. I don’t rate Kavaliauskass as highly as I did Hooker, and though Hooker had some good moments against Ortiz, I don’t see Kavaliauskas providing quite as tough a test. I think Ortiz is going to look fantastic and better Crawford’s result. Say, Ortiz by stoppage in the fifth.