Trump Leads Biden By 5 Points In Hypothetical 2024 Presidential Poll

Topline

An Emerson College poll released Friday found President Joe Biden is down 44% to 39% to former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 rematch, as Biden’s approval rating continues to plummet.

Key Facts

Surprisingly, half of Republicans surveyed said they were more likely to vote for Trump following the January 6 hearings last month.

Trump’s support has held steady over the past month, according to the survey, while Biden’s support dropped four points, following continued rising inflation.

Biden’s approval rating is 40%, according to the survey, steady with the 38% rating from Emerson’s poll in May, but still down from 45% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released in April, and 63% in a NORC poll last year.

The economy was the most important issue for respondents (58%), a nine-point increase over Emerson’s last national poll in May.

The Emerson poll found Congress had a 19% approval rating, while the Supreme Court had a 36% rating.

Crucial Quote

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said the January 6 hearings “reflect an educational divide regarding their impact on Trump support,” with 33% of people with a college degree or less responding they are less likely to vote for Trump as a result of the hearings, while 51% of people with a postgraduate degree were less likely to vote for Trump.

Key Background

Biden won the popular vote 51% to 47% over Trump in 2020, which Trump falsely claimed was fraudulent, leading to protests, including most famously the January 6 Capitol riot. Trump’s claims have since been debunked.

Big Number

64%. That’s the percentage of Democrats who think Biden should be the Democratic nominee for president in 2024, according to the poll. Republicans were less inclined to support Trump as the 2024 nominee (55%), over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (20%) and former Vice President Mike Pence (5%).

Tangent

The survey also found 59% of Americans – 62% of women and 81% of Democrats – think Congress should legalize the right to abortion, following the Supreme Court’s decision last week to overturn Roe v. Wade. The strongest support for a Congressional act came from people ages 18 to 29 (76%), compared to 59% of people ages 30 to 49, 50% of people ages 50-64 and 56% of people 65 and older. Roughly 65% of Republicans oppose the idea.

Further Reading

Biden’s Approval Rating Hits Record Low, Poll Finds (Forbes)

Biden Has Seen Biggest Drop In Approval Among Young Voters Since Taking Office, Poll Finds (Forbes)