Tight Contests In Must-Watch Races As Senate Remains Up For Grabs

Topline

Five of the six tightest Senate races in this year’s midterm elections remained undecided at midnight Tuesday, with bright spots for both Republicans and Democrats, leaving no clear answer on which party will hold power for the next two years (return to this page for updates).

Key Facts

Ohio: Republican J.D. Vance has defeated Rep. Tim Ryan in an open Senate contest, with the Associated Press calling the race for the Hillbilly Elegy author and Trump favorite at 11:19 p.m.—Vance led 53.5%-46.5% with some 95% of the vote counted shortly after midnight.

Arizona: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly holds a surprisingly strong lead over Republican challenger Blake Masters, up 57.8%-40% with 48% of the estimated vote counted at around midnight Eastern time.

Georgia: The contest is the tightest of all the big Senate races, as Republican Herschel Walker led Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock by fewer than 1,000 votes, with 89% of ballots counted (if neither candidate wins 50%, the race will head to a runoff).

Pennsylvania: In good news for Democrats, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) leads Trump-endorsed former reality TV doctor Mehmet Oz 49.3%-48.3% with around 80% of the vote counted.

Wisconsin: Incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R) is narrowly holding off Democrat Mandela Barnes, leading 51.5%-48.5% with an estimated 83% of the vote counted.

Nevada: Vote-counting hasn’t started yet between Republican Adam Laxalt and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) in what polls suggest will be a razor-tight contest where the economy is far and away the top issue, as the state’s inflation rate is among the highest in the country, and the tourism-reliant economy is still recovering from the pandemic.

Surprising Fact

Both parties aimed to flip safer seats, but those efforts appeared to largely fall short. Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D), New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) and Washington Sen. Patty Murray (D) staved off Republican challengers, while Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R) defeated their Democratic opponents, and Rep. Ted Budd (R) won an open Senate seat in North Carolina, the AP projected Tuesday night.

Tangent

Most of Tuesday’s Senate races aren’t expected to be close. Democrats held onto seats in California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New York, Oregon and Vermont, according to projections from the AP. Meanwhile, Republicans held on in Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, South Carolina and two races in Oklahoma.

Key Background

Republicans have 21 seats up for grabs in Tuesday’s election, but 15 are in districts solidly controlled by the GOP, while only one—Toomey’s seat—is rated a toss-up, according to the Cook Political Report. Of the 14 Democrat-held seats in contention, eight are in solid blue districts, and three are rated toss-ups. Republicans have gained seats in three of the past four midterms: two in 2018 under former President Donald Trump, and nine in 2014 and six in 2010 under former President Barack Obama. Democrats secured six additional seats under former President George W. Bush in 2006.

Further Reading

Fetterman Attacks Oz Over Abortion Remarks In Post-Debate Ad (Forbes)

Pennsylvania Senate Race: Near-Tie As Republicans Rally Around Oz, Narrowing Fetterman’s Lead (Forbes)