‘Thor 4’ Has Two Key Advantages Over ‘Doctor Strange 2’

Walt Disney has announced tickets on sale for Taika Waititi’s Thor: Love and Thunder, and we’ve got a new television spot and seven new character posters. I’m not sure why a couple of goats got character posters, but I suppose that’s no different than when Goose the Cat got his own poster for Captain Marvel. As for the television spot, it’s a conventional roll call spot arguing that (once again) Thor is building a team to fight a new tyrannical threat (Christian Bale’s God Killer) and that it’s possible that the Guardians of the Galaxy won’t just be in the film’s opening segments.

Oh, and Gorg name-checking Jodie Foster is amusingly random. Foster was my favorite actress/top celebrity crush in my middle school/high school days. I couldn’t care less about her joining the MCU, I have no objection to her getting paid lots of money to be goofy while looking fabulous. So, yeah, sure, bring Foster into the MCU. Anyway, all presumptions are that this fourth Thor flick will open with $150-$200 million in early July. It’s less “you have to see this right now” than Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, as no one is expecting multiverse-bending cameos and major status-quo shifts.

One key advantage it has over Sam Raimi’s Doctor Strange sequel is that it’s a sequel to a film that even folks who aren’t obsessed with the MCU saw and really liked. As such, it’ll pull folks who just want to see another Waititi-directed Thor film. Save for Black Widow, early July MCU releases tend to be leggier than the early summer releases. Spider-Man: Homecoming opened with $117 million, dropped a then-record 62% in weekend two but legged out to $334 million domestic (and $881 million global) since there were no big live-action kid-friendly flicks between it and Thor: Ragnarök in early November.

Likewise, Ant-Man pulled $181 million from a $58 million debut after Pixels and Fantastic Four stumbled, leaving Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation as the only other kid-skewing summer tentpole on the horizon. Although even Ant-Man and the Wasp pulled $216 million from a $75 million debut amid a crowded mid-summer slate in 2018. So, it’s worth noting, advantage number two, there are no big live-action kid flicks between Thor: Love and Thunder and, uh, the reissue of Avatar on September 23. Between those two are Nope, Bullet Train, Beast, Three Thousand Years of Longing, The Woman King and Don’t Worry Darling, all of which are adult-skewing.

If Thor: Love and Thunder pulls past Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (passing $400 million domestic any day now from a $187 million debut), it’ll be because it’s crowdpleasing enough survive any “Rangorak was better!” critical chatter and will have next-to-no future-tense competition for months to come. As such, barring a fluke in terms of audience reception, I’d expect a weekend-to-final multiplier of 2.8-3.1x, especially if it opens closer to $150 million (horrors, I know) than $200 million. After all, everything left on the slate would be thrilled to earn in total whatever Thor 4 nabs on its debut weekend. Now, we wait.