Spain’s Got A Lot Of Old, Broken Leopard 2 Tanks. How Many It Sends To Ukraine Depends On How Many It Can Repair.

Spain could end up being one of the biggest donors of surplus Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine—or one of the smallest.

The uncertainty over Madrid’s tank pledge points to some serious issues underlying Kyiv’s intensifying effort to form a whole brigade of around 100 Leopard 2s by combining old tanks from allied countries across Europe and North America.

In short, there are a lot of old Leopard 2s in European arsenals. But most of them are decades old, and some are in bad repair. While eight NATO countries have pledged—or hinted they’ll pledge—as many as 134 of the German-designed Leopards 2s, the number of tanks Ukraine actually can deploy could end up being much lower if too many of the tanks are too far gone.

The Spanish Leopard 2s are a microcosm of a wider problem. On paper, even older Leopard 2A4s from the 1980s are excellent tanks. They have a tough armor mix, a powerful 120-millimeter gun with digital fire controls, crisp optics and a 1,500-horsepower engine that can push the 70-ton tanks to 45 miles per hour on-road.

But a 35-year-old Leopard 2A4 could turn to junk fast if left in storage—especially outdoors and without regular maintenance. A tank like any diesel vehicle benefits from regular use.

What happens to a neglected tank? The optics can get cloudy. Rubber seals can dry up and turn brittle. Wiring can corrode.

It all can happen quickly, too. Consider how few relatively young T-72 and T-80 tanks Russia has been able to pull out of storage to make good its losses in Ukraine. Tanks break down fast while sitting around in wet, cold European weather.

The Spanish army in theory possesses 327 tanks: 108 Leopard 2A4s that it acquired from German surplus stocks in 1998, and 219 Leopard 2Es that Spanish firm Santa Barbara Sistemas manufactured under license starting in 2002.

The A4s no longer are active. They all are in storage at Casetas Logistics Center in Zaragoza. According to Spanish media, 53 of the old tanks are repairable, but 33 of those require extensive work that could take weeks or months. Madrid so far has committed to donating just four to six of the 20 A4s that local media describe as being in “good condition.”

The initial four, five or six Spanish Leopard 2A4s will join the 14 German Leopard 2A6s, 14 Polish Leopard 2A4s and four Canadian Leopard 2A4s that represent firm, official pledges. That’s at least 36 Leopard 2s Ukraine can count on in addition to the 14 Challenger 2 and 31 M-1A2 tanks that the United Kingdom and the United States respectively have pledged.

But Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba made it clear his country wants a whole brigade of Leopard 2s. That should be around 100 front-line tanks in three smallish battalions.

Norway, The Netherlands, Finland and Portugal are poised to donate to Ukraine some of their own Leopard 2s—perhaps 35, in all. And Germany might double its tank pledge, potentially boosting the initial Ukrainian inventory to at least 85 Leopard 2s of several variants. As in Spain, these pledges depend on how many old, warehoused tanks are repairable.

A hundred-tank brigade would need at least a few spare vehicles to train crews, replace combat losses and provide a maintenance float. Spain alone could close the gap between the Leopard 2s Ukraine already is likely to get and the Leopards 2s it needs in order to sustain a full brigade.

But that depends on how many of those old Spanish A4s are repairable in a reasonable span of time.

It’s no secret the Ukrainians are planning an offensive for early 2023. It generally takes a couple of months—as few as five weeks, according to Polish officials—to train a four-person Leopard 2 crew. The first few Leopard 2s already are en route to Ukraine, so training should begin soon.

The clock is ticking down to the day when Ukraine’s first Leopard 2 battalions, each with around 30 tanks, should be ready to support an offensive. Whether Ukraine initially fields two Leopard 2 battalions, or three, could depend on Spain.