Fetterman Takes Double-Digit Lead Over Oz In New Pennsylvania Poll

Topline

Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) has opened an 11-percentage-point lead in Pennsylvania’s open Senate race against Dr. Mehmet Oz, the Trump-endorsed TV show host turned Republican politician, according to one Fox News poll—a trend that appears to be driven in large part by a massive enthusiasm gap between the candidates’ supporters.

Key Facts

Some 47% of Pennsylvania voters intend to cast their vote for Fetterman, while 36% plan to vote for Oz, according to the poll, which surveyed 908 people from Friday to Tuesday.

Fetterman supporters strongly back their candidate, with the poll finding 68% are behind him “enthusiastically,” but only 35% of Oz supporters say the same about the Republican.

Some 52% of voters also said they are “extremely” or “very” concerned that Oz, who spent decades living in New Jersey before moving to Pennsylvania in 2020, is familiar enough with the state to effectively serve as one of its senators.

Concerns have swirled over Fetterman’s health due to a recent stroke that has largely kept him off the campaign trail, but voters don’t seem too worried about it: Only 23% of respondents said they are “extremely” or “very” concerned it would affect Fetterman’s performance as a senator.

The Fox News poll found the largest lead for Fetterman of any major survey so far—he holds an 8.7 percentage point advantage over Oz in RealClearPolitics’ polling average of the race.

Key Background

The Pennsylvania Senate race is widely viewed as the Democrats’ best hope to flip a Republican-held seat this November, in what is otherwise expected to be a rough midterm election for the party due to rampant inflation and concerns about a recession. Though he’s done little campaigning in person, Fetterman has embarked on a relentless, celebrity-backed online trolling effort highlighting Oz’s ties to New Jersey. The lieutenant governor in recent weeks has featured Jersey Shore star Snooki and E Street Band guitarist Steven Van Zandt in videos connecting Oz with New Jersey, and he tweeted Saturday he was starting a petition to induct Oz into the New Jersey Hall of Fame. Oz was born in Ohio and grew up in Delaware, but he got his medical degree from the University of Pennsylvania.

Tangent

The poll also found Democratic Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapriro leading Trump-endorsed Republican Doug Mastriano 50% to 40% in the state’s gubernatorial race.

Further Reading

Trump-Endorsed Doug Mastriano Wins GOP Primary For Pennsylvania Governor (Forbes)

First Snooki, now Little Steven: Fetterman trolls Oz with N.J. celebrities (Washington Post)

Dow Jumps 300 Points Despite U.S. GDP Shrinking For A Second Quarter In A Row—But Experts Say No Recession Yet (Forbes)