Could Weather Impact Florida Vote? Tropical Storm May Strike On Election Day

Topline

There is “increasing risk” Florida could be dealing with a tropical threat as voters go to the polls on Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center, though at this point there are no plans to close polling places due to the rare November storm system.

Key Facts

A large area of disturbed weather over the northern Caribbean Sea is forecast to approach southeastern Florida early next week, bringing the potential for “coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast.”

Forecasters give the system a 60% chance of developing in the next five days, though impacts to Florida are likely regardless of development.

Officials in Volusia and Flagler counties in northeast Florida are warning the system could threaten homes near the coast after Hurricane Ian caused substantial erosion in late September, and residents in vulnerable homes are being urged to use sandbags to mitigate flooding.

If a tropical storm forms, it will be named Nicole.

What To Watch For

There are several high-profile midterm elections in Florida, including the gubernatorial contest between Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and Democratic challenger Charlie Crist and the Senate race between incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio (R) and Democratic Rep. Val Demings. The GOP is favored in both races.

Surprising Fact

Tropical systems in November—the last month of hurricane season—are unusual, but two hurricanes formed over the course of three hours Wednesday morning. Hurricane Martin moved out to sea over the north Atlantic, while the remnants of Hurricane Lisa are still meandering in the southern Gulf of Mexico after the storm moved across the Yucatan peninsula.

Key Background

Much of the Florida coastline is at risk from even weak systems after Hurricane Ian devastated the state just five weeks ago. The greatest impacts were in southwestern Florida, where the Category 4 hurricane made landfall, but extensive damage stretched across the storm’s path through the state. Early damage estimates due to Ian have been as much as $70 billion, primarily due to high winds and flooding. If another tropical storm develops, it would be the 14th named storm of the year, which is exactly how many are expected in an average season. The seven hurricanes that have formed are also in line with the number in a typical season, while the two major hurricanes are just short of the historical average of three per season. Forecasters had predicted 2022 would be among the most active seasons in history, but that now appears very unlikely.

Further Reading

Total Flood And Wind Losses From Hurricane Ian Range From $41 Billion To $70 Billion (Forbes)

Two Atlantic Hurricanes Form Wednesday In Rare November Tropical Burst (Forbes)

Hurricane Ian: These Are The Florida Areas Hardest Hit By The Category 4 Storm (Forbes)

Hurricane Activity Could Skyrocket In Coming Weeks After July Lull, Forecasters Say (Forbes)