Chicago Cubs Explore Shortstop Market, But Will They Pay Up To Land One?

It’s one thing to act like you want to add a top shortstop, and another thing again to do it. We’re going to find out over the next month or so if the post-Theo Epstein-era Chicago Cubs can do more than titillate their fan base.

While Jed Hoyer has said little publicly about the rebuilding team’s interest in adding one of the monster shortstops on the free-agent market — Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson — he and his ownership group is doing little to scuttle growing speculation. Tom Ricketts must enjoy a positive buzz after the acrimony that has followed the selloff of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Kyle Schwarber, which has even prompted the team to lower season-ticket prices.

The Cubs are being heavily linked to a pursuit of Correa, the 28-year-old who opted out of his deal in Minnesota after a solid 2022 season. They certainly have plenty of payroll flexibility to land him or one of the others, as their running payroll total is only $123.4 million. It’s below $100 million if you don’t include the $26 million they’ll pay Jason Heyward and David Bote, who have been discarded.

But how realistic is it for them to compete against teams like the Dodgers, Braves, Giants, Red Sox, Angels, Mariners and Phillies? Can they step up to grab a nine-figure contract player who is in demand elsewhere?

The answer is yes, but only if they are prepared to outbid the competition.

When Epstein was building his championship team at Wrigley Field, with the help of Joe Maddon and the romantic narrative of ended a drought dating to 1908, the Cubs became a destination team for players. But the first free agent deals Epstein signed still took a lot of what the Texas writer Dan Jenkins would call “money-whipping.”

Jon Lester signed for $155 million over six years (there were reports he turned down more from San Francisco to reunite with Epstein). Heyward signed a jaw-dropping, eight-year, $184 million deal a year later. These were top-of-the-market transactions, and there’s no reason to believe it will be any easier to sign Turner, Correa, Bogaerts and Swanson.

There are currently four shortstops with deals of at least 10 years (Francisco Lindor, Fernando Tatis Jr., Corey Seager and Wander Franco) and five with contracts that pay at least $175 million (add Marcus Semien to the list, even though Texas moved him to second base). Writing for the Athletic, former Reds and Nationals GM Jim Bowden estimates the contracts for Correa, Turner, Bogaerts and Swanson will total 31 years and $962 million.

Bowden’s breakdown goes like this: Correa, 10 years, $345 million; Turner, eight years, $264 million; Bogaerts, seven years, $196 million, and Swanson, six years, $154 million.

This is the deep end of the pool, and you wonder if the Ricketts family still has the desire to swim there.

How do you match up a high-end free agent signing with the decision to meekly allow Willson Contreras — ranked as the ninth best catcher by fWAR (3.3) — to leave as a free agent when you don’t have a long-term replacement in place?

The Cubs scooped up some low-hanging fruit last off-season, signing Marcus Stroman and Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki to free-agent deals. They helped the Cubs go 74-88, a three-game improvement on the season that included a collapse after trading Rizzo, Bryant and Baez. Hoyer says the team is at a point where it can spend intelligently to get better.

From Hoyer’s end-of-season news conference: “To me, intelligent spending involves making decisions that make sense for the 2023 season but also aren’t going to hinder what we’re trying to build. The nature of baseball contracts is challenging that way. We’ve all seen contracts of certain lengths that can really bog a team down. It’s easy to talk about the player you’re acquiring, but if that contract ends up hindering the ultimate goal here, which is to build something special and sustainable and lasting, then it wasn’t a good transaction.”

Signing Correa, Turner, Bogaerts or Swanson would immediately boost the Cubs’ credibility. But will Ricketts and Hoyer go into full “money whip” mode to make that happen?

There’s no reason it can’t happen but very little to suggest it will.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/philrogers/2022/11/17/cubs-explore-shortstop-market-but-will-they-pay-up-to-land-one/