XRP ETF Approval Odds at 65% as Bloomberg Analysts Assess Crypto ETF Filings

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas released their latest odds for potential approvals of spot crypto ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The report focuses on filings for Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin ETFs, with analysts giving relatively high probabilities for approval.

What Are the Odds of Approval for XRP, LTC, DOGE ETF Approval?

Seyffart wrote on X, “NEW: Eric Balchunas and I took a look at the filings for spot crypto ETFs. We’re putting out relatively high odds of approval across the board. Mainly focused on Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin for now.” The table accompanying the post shows Litecoin with the highest approval odds at 90%, followed by Dogecoin at 75%, Solana at 70%, and XRP at 65%.

Balchunas also commented on X, saying, “Our official alt coin ETF approval odds are out. Litecoin leads w 90% chance, then Doge, followed by Solana and XRP. We are only doing for 33 Act IBIT-esque filings. But def poss to see futures or Cayman-subsidiary type 40 Act stuff get through as well.”

According to the table, Litecoin and Dogecoin have been categorized as “likely” commodities by the SEC, while Solana and XRP are not. SEC acknowledgment dates for Litecoin and Solana have already been recorded, with Litecoin’s 19b-4 acknowledgment occurring on January 29, 2025, and Solana’s on February 6, 2025. The final SEC deadlines for these two assets are October 2, 2025, and October 10, 2025, respectively.

XRP and Dogecoin, however, have yet to receive acknowledgment for their 19b-4 filings. XRP’s acknowledgment date is listed as February 13, 2025, with a final SEC deadline of October 17, 2025. Dogecoin’s acknowledgment date is February 14, 2025, with a final deadline of October 18, 2025.

Other digital assets such as HBAR and Polkadot are listed but without detailed filing data. Both assets are marked as “Maybe” under the SEC’s commodity classification.

Seyffart and Balchunas emphasize that these odds are subject to change as the SEC evaluates the filings. Deadlines could be adjusted based on regulatory decisions.