Why Is Crypto Down? $1B Liquidated as $869M ETF Outflow Hits

• Factor 1 (Supply): Long-Term Holders (LTHs) sold 815,000 BTC (worth $79B) in the last 30 days in a “late-cycle” profit-taking wave.
• Factor 2 (Demand Failure): U.S. Spot ETFs registered a massive $869 million outflow on Thursday, failing to absorb the supply.
• Factor 3 (Macro): A 2.3% Nasdaq drop and collapsing Fed rate cut hopes (from 49% to 20%) intensified the “risk-off” mood, triggering the final liquidation flush.

The crypto market enters another deep red session today. Bitcoin dropped 6% in 24 hours, trading around $96,466, extending a 13.4% monthly decline. The move triggered widespread liquidations and renewed concerns about weakening risk appetite across global markets.

$1.02B in Liquidations Hit the Market

In the past 24 hours, 236,870 traders were liquidated, wiping out $1.02 billion in positions. The largest single liquidation occurred on HTX, where a $44.29 million BTC-USDT long was liquidated.

Once Bitcoin lost $100,000, cascading stops and margin calls amplified downside, which is why price slid quickly toward the $96,000 area; this dynamic keeps intraday bounces shallow unless new buyers step in.

LTHs Record $79B BTC Dump in 30 Days

A major driver behind Bitcoin’s weakness is the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs). Over the past 30 days, LTHs sold approximately 815,000 BTC, worth more than $79 billion.

This marks the largest divestment since January 2024 and mirrors activity observed near past cycle peaks. Their holdings fell from 76% of supply in October to 70% today, increasing market supply and reducing price support.

Analysts note that this selling is mostly profit-taking, a normal late-cycle trend, rather than panic or a mass exit.

ETFs also Dumping Bitcoin with $869M Outflows

U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs offered no meaningful cushion, with flows remaining mixed throughout the week.

Positive inflows occurred on Nov. 6 and Nov. 11, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and ARK 21Shares’ ARKB. However, outflows returned on Nov. 13. The biggest inflow day saw $524 million enter ETFs, but the momentum faded. 

As of the close of business on Thursday, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs registered a massive $869 million in outflows.

Notably, ETFs of Bitcoin and Fidelity FBTC typically set the tone. Without sustained inflows from these funds, the demand for Bitcoin remains fragile.

Macro Stress Hits Risk Markets

The crypto decline did not happen in isolation. Broader risk markets deteriorated significantly, giving traders nowhere to hide.

The Nasdaq fell 2.3% after Palantir’s CEO warned that many AI projects may not justify their costs. Tech names like Palantir, Intel, and CoreWave dropped 6% or more.

Federal Reserve expectations also shifted. The odds of interest rates dropping below 3.5% by early 2026 fell from 49% to just 20%, reducing liquidity hopes across markets.

Tesla, Disney, and several major consumer companies also reported weak data, intensifying the risk-off mood. Bitcoin responded accordingly, falling 6.5% after failing to break above $105,000, which triggered $440 million in BTC-specific liquidations.

Is the Crypto Cycle Topping?

Kronos Research notes that despite “late-cycle” signals, the market has not necessarily topped, as long as buyers remain active and macroeconomic conditions stabilize.

Some analysts point to historical timing: previous cycle peaks have occurred roughly 1,050–1,067 days after the market bottom. The recent all-time high on Oct. 6, 2025, arrived 1,050 days after the last market low, suggesting a possible top.

Still, ETF buyers and corporate treasuries do not follow traditional four-year cycles, and shifting demand dynamics could reshape market behavior.

For now, the market remains caught between late-cycle selling, macroeconomic anxiety, and weakening technical support.

Related: Bitcoin (BTC) Analysts Predict $170K Peak ‘Within 6 Weeks,’ Ignoring ‘Extreme Fear’ Now At 15