Why Altcoin Season May Still Be In Its Early Stages?

The crypto market delivered a relative underperformance in October, an outcome that yielded mixed feelings about altcoin season.

Some signs suggest that it has already begun, but altcoin performance has not yet yielded much upside, contrary to expectations.

But despite the uncertainty, some key figures in the industry have offered their two cents on the current state of altcoin season.

Among them is former Binance CEO CZ, who recently hinted that the current state of the market mirrors his first cycle in 2017.

CZ’s post referenced Ethereum’s performance in 2017 in the early stages of its rally.

X-based crypto analyst Dan Gambardello conducted a deeper analysis, drawing parallels between the current market position and the pre-rally market position in 2017.

He noted that Bitcoin dominance recovered slightly in October 2017 before extending its decline in the weeks and months after.

Interestingly, Bitcoin dominance has been ticking up since mid-September.

Risk Analysis Reveals Current Altcoin season Still Suppressed

According to Gambardello, a risk analysis of the current market position versus October 2017 revealed that altcoins were not yet overheated.

According to his analysis, altcoin risk in the first week of October 2017 hovered above 70. In contrast, altcoins risk profile was still low at around 24 at the time of observation (early October 2025).

Similarly, the Bitcoin risk model revealed that the Bitcoin risk level hovered above 60 in October 2017.

However, the latest data revealed that Bitcoin risk was significantly lower at around 51 at the start of October 2025.

The risk profiles suggested that both Bitcoin and altcoins were not yet overheated compared to October 2017.

The similarities between now and then in terms of price movements indicated that the 2025/2026 bull run still had a lot of untapped potential upside.

These observations tracked with key characteristics of the current market cycle. However, some analysts also noted that the current market cycle was much different from previous bull runs.

This was mostly because institutions have been front-running the current market cycle.

Here’s Why Altcoin Season Might be Different This Time

Previous market cycles offered useful insights into the anatomy of the bull and bear markets. Some common characteristics, such as Bitcoin versus altcoin dominance, have been playing out as expected.

For example, liquidity rotation intensified over the last few weeks after Bitcoin dominance dropped below 60%.

However, liquidity rotation remained limited to a few altcoins. Ethereum, in particular, benefited from the rotation, but it pulled back considerably after attaining new highs.

Ethereum price action historically remained elevated when altcoin season kicked in during past bull markets. Analysts expect the same trend to play out when altcoin season gets heated.

However, experts also expect altcoin season to be different this time, courtesy of institutional involvement.

Institutional demand is expected to remain focused on a few top coins and this could drive the overall market sentiment.

In other words, not all altcoins that performed well in the past will perform well this time.

Analysts believe that cryptocurrencies whose protocols are aligned with current cycle narratives may attract higher liquidity than their peers.

It also means that most altcoins might end up being sidelined; hence, caution is warranted when selecting the right coins.

Of course, there are other variables to consider, such as the duration of the bull market.