Wen XRP ETF? A Crypto Lawyer Weighs in on Likely Timelines

When the news first broke about SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s upcoming resignation, the crypto market immediately turned abuzz with speculation about the future of crypto regulation in the United States. Although Trump’s pick for the new SEC Chair hasn’t been announced yet, most agree that the gloomy days of regulatory crackdown on crypto are over. 

As the industry awaits the appointment of the new pro-crypto SEC Chair, some analysts believe that after the success of Bitcoin and Ether spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), many similar products tracking the performance of top altcoins will get approval from the regulator. Once far-off propositions now have more chances than ever to become reality, so asset managers are now vying to offer altcoins ETFs for easy trading by Wall Street investors. 

So far, several fund companies have filed applications for Solana, HBAR, and XRP spot ETFs, with analyst Nate Geraci predicting that Cardano and Avalanche may be next in the line. Eric Balchunas, the senior ETF analyst for Bloomberg, even went as far as to suggest that Dogecoin ETF may secure a spot ETF as well, floating December 31 as a possible date for DOGE filing with the SEC.  

The imminent arrival of such products would unleash a wave of institutional capital into the ecosystems of the said altcoins, driving prices to new highs. According to John Deaton, a pro-Ripple attorney who unsuccessfully challenged Elizabeth Warren in the 2024 Senate race, a $100 billion market cap for XRP may be just around the corner. 

At its current price, XRP has a market cap of $81 billion, not too far away from unseating BNB for the fifth place. Given that the altcoin has nearly tripled in valuation in two weeks, jumping from $33 billion on November 10, adding another $20 billion doesn’t seem unrealistic at all. 

However, in a scenario where XRP secures the spot ETF approval, some analysts state that $100 billion is going to seem like rookie numbers. According to trader Milkybull Crypto, a 2017-like rally could catapult XRP to the $9-10 levels, with a conservative target being $3-5. 

For reference, XRP at $9 would mean a market cap of approximately $500 billion, more than the one of Ethereum at the time of writing. However, before XRP reaches new highs, the market needs an answer to a trivial, yet pivotal question: wen XRP ETF?

So far, three asset managers—Bitwise, Canary Capital, and, most recently, 21Shares—have already filed an S-1 form with the SEC to launch a spot fund that would track the price of XRP. Crypto asset manager Grayscale also recently announced the creation of XRP Trust, leaving the door open for the potential ETF transition after regulatory approval.

According to legal expert Jeremy Hogan, XRP ETFs may hit the market as soon as summer 2025, given that the average time for the SEC to greenlight the application takes between 6 and 12 months. The lawyer pointed out that the possibility of the SEC’s enforcement action was cited as one of the major risks in Bitwise’s XRP application, adding that the said part may have to be amended soon. 

In October, days before the US elections, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said in an interview that XRP ETF is “inevitable,” pointing out that the regulator had to cave in to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, despite its apparent objection to the idea.  

Ripple CEO gives thumbs up to Trump’s Treasury Secretary pick

On Saturday, Trump announced that his long-anticipated pick for Treasury Secretary would be Scott Bessent, a billionaire hedge fund manager and top fundraiser to his campaign. Bessent, known for his high-profile bet against the British pound in 1992 when working for Democratic megadonor George Soros, is an advocate of deregulation and tax reform, which he believes will spur bank lending and reinvigorate the American economy.

Bessent holds a favorable view of Bitcoin, applauding its ability to cultivate “a market culture in the U.S.” while making users believe in a “system that works for them.” The official also expressed his excitement for Trump’s embrace of crypto, adding that the industry’s ethos fits very well with the Republican Party.  

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse praised the decision, calling Bessent the perfect pick for fostering innovation, especially in the crypto industry.  

A similar view was echoed by Anthony Scaramucci, who called Bessent a “great guy and a safe and stable pair of hands for the country.”

The search for the next SEC Chair continues 

Now that the president’s pick for Treasury Secretary is known, the public attention has shifted to who will lead the SEC under the new administration. According to Eleanor Terrett of Fox Business, it’s just a matter of time before Trump fills other regulatory financial positions, including SEC chair, CFTC chair, and NEC director. 

For now, the top contenders for the role are former SEC commissioner Paul Atkins, a white-collar defense lawyer Brad Bondi, and Trump’s former OCC Acting Director Brian Brooks. Acting SEC commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda are floated as potential candidates as well.