The crypto waver in October, expectations and searches for “Uptober” collapse

The month of October, usually known for the crypto rally and therefore nicknamed “Uptober”, sees expectations collapse this time. 

The crypto markets have indeed lost 200 billion dollars, with investor sentiment becoming increasingly negative, dubbing the month as “Selltober.” In this article, we will see all the details. 

The disappearance of the bull sentiment in the crypto market: “Uptober” becomes “Selltober”

Every October, investors in the crypto world have eagerly awaited the traditional market rally, aptly nicknamed “Uptober,” which has historically seen Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rise significantly. 

However, October 2024 has taken a different path, at least for the moment. In fact, despite expectations of another month of growth, the market has suffered a hard setback, losing 200 billion dollars in a few weeks. 

This sudden drop has caused the mentions of “Uptober” on social media to plummet, leading many to rename the month “Selltober”.

According to the data from CoinGecko, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has decreased by 8% since the beginning of October, reaching 2.2 trillion dollars on October 3rd.

Bitcoin, the largest and most influential cryptocurrency, experienced a decline of 4.7% from its peak of 64,000 dollars on October 1st, briefly dropping below 60,000 dollars before slightly recovering.

This decline has surprised many investors, particularly those who were expecting a continuation of the positive trend of the last five years. 

From 2018 to 2022, Bitcoin has indeed always recorded significant gains in this month, with increases ranging from 5.5% to 40%. However, 2024 broke this trend, leading many to wonder if the famous “seasonality” of Uptober has come to an end.

The role of social media and the causes of the bear of prices 

As mentioned, an unmistakable signal of the change in sentiment was the sudden drop in mentions of “Uptober” on social media. 

As reported by the onchain analysis company Santiment, in fact, the number of posts and comments about “Uptober” has decreased drastically at the beginning of October, while traders have become increasingly skeptical about the possibility of a bull rally.

This skepticism has given rise to a new trend: “Selltober” and “Octobear,” reflecting the growing pessimism among investors.

Ash Crypto, a well-known trader with over 1.1 million followers on X, commented on the matter as follows: 

“BTC could drop further, causing many to lose confidence in Uptober.”

However, it also suggested that once the bear start asking for prices between 40,000 and 45,000 dollars, Bitcoin could suddenly rebound.

According to the analysts at 10x Research, the October decline was partly caused by a combination of technical and fundamental factors. Firstly, many investors, hoping for a continuation of the bull trend, were caught off guard by the sudden sell-offs. 

The technical indicators had already signaled that the rally was overextended, but it was the combined action of the large token holders and the funds that unlocked large amounts of cryptocurrencies that caused the prices to plummet.

Despite the sales, however, capital inflows remain strong, thanks especially to Bitcoin Spot ETFs and an increase in leverage in futures contracts. 

This suggests that, although the market is temporarily bear, there are still institutional investors and professional traders ready to bet on a rebound.

The hope of a rebound and the short-term future prospects 

Despite the prevailing pessimism, not all analysts believe that Uptober has completely failed.

Maksim Balashevich, founder of Santiment, highlighted that the lack of optimism could be a bull signal. 

“The excitement for Uptober is waning as the market declines, which could pave the way for a short-term rebound.”

Historically, cryptocurrency markets tend to experience a recovery around the middle of October. It’s no coincidence that many investors are keeping an eye on the coming days to see if this pattern will repeat in 2024. 

If this were to happen, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could see a significant bull before the end of the month.

In other words, even if the beginning of October 2024 has been and is marked by a general market decline, the more experienced investors know that volatility is an intrinsic characteristic of cryptocurrencies. 

The price fluctuations, both upward and downward, are part of the investment landscape in this sector, and for many, each decline represents a buying opportunity.

The real question now is whether Bitcoin and the other major cryptocurrencies will manage to turn the situation around in the coming weeks. Furthermore, if the past teaches anything, it is that one should never underestimate the resilience of the crypto market.