Supreme Court Trump Tariff Case Puts Liquidity and Crypto in Focus

• The Supreme Court ruling could trigger $150 billion to $200 billion in tariff refunds.
• Refunds may affect government revenue, Treasury yields, and market liquidity.
• Bitcoin holds above $90,000 as investors assess longer-term policy uncertainty.

A pending Supreme Court decision on President Donald Trump’s tariff powers could lead to large tax-style refunds and influence crypto investment in 2026. The ruling may reshape government revenue, bond yields, and liquidity conditions.

Supreme Court Decision May Unlock Tariff Refunds

The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule as early as January 9 on whether President Trump had the authority to impose tariffs using emergency powers without congressional approval. 

The case focuses on Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which allowed him to implement tariffs rapidly. During oral arguments in November, several justices questioned whether the law grants such broad authority. 

Prediction markets reflect this uncertainty. Polymarket places the odds of the court fully backing Trump’s tariff powers at about 24%, while Kalshi estimates the probability at 27%. If the court strikes down the tariffs, companies that paid the levies could be entitled to refunds.

Potential Refunds and Fiscal Impact

Investors estimate that tariff refunds could total between $150 billion and $200 billion over several months. The repayments would effectively reverse a major source of federal revenue.

JPMorgan estimates annualized tariff income could decline to around $250 billion from roughly $350 billion if the administration shifts to alternative legal avenues with lower rates. Analysts say reduced revenue could force the U.S. Treasury to issue more debt, putting upward pressure on yields.

Higher Treasury yields tend to draw capital toward bonds, tightening financial conditions for risk assets. Market strategists note that such shifts can influence equities and digital assets by reducing overall liquidity.

For the private sector, those repayments would effectively reverse a major fiscal drain. Importers and manufacturers that absorbed higher costs would regain cash tied up in tariff payments. Market participants say that capital could be redeployed across balance sheets, investments, and financial markets over time.

Crypto Markets Focus on Liquidity Effects

Bitcoin trades at $90,861, a 0.7% rise in the past day, showing limited movement ahead of the court’s decision. Ethereum hovered around $3,100, down more than 0.3% over the past 24 hours.

Analysts say crypto markets have not always followed traditional macro patterns during tariff-related events. CoinDesk Indices research on the first-quarter 2025 “Tariff Tantrum” found that price declines were brief and largely driven by forced liquidations and reduced leverage rather than long-term selling.

Jose Torres, an economist at Interactive Brokers, said that if the court blocks or limits the tariffs, the administration is likely to seek other legal routes. He warned that slower and narrower measures could extend fiscal uncertainty, which historically weighs on crypto during periods of rising yields.

Meanwhile, other market analysts say companies receiving refunds in 2026 may allocate portions of excess capital to non-traditional assets, including crypto, especially if regulatory clarity improves and inflation or yield concerns persist.

Regulatory Backdrop Adds Longer-Term Support

While near-term uncertainty remains, regulatory conditions for crypto in the U.S. are shifting. TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group recently described 2026 as a rare period of regulatory alignment, with the White House, Treasury Department, and market regulators taking a more accommodative approach to digital assets.

The firm expects progress through agency guidance, exemptions, and targeted rule changes rather than sweeping legislation. It cautioned that many initiatives must be finalized before 2029 to withstand potential political changes after the 2028 election.

Related: Trump’s $2000 Tariff Dividend Promise Tests Legal Limits and Market Nerves