Slow strangulation (about 55 percent probability). Banks keep transaction ceilings; the e-rupee expands to government subsidies and payrolls; retail trading shifts to peer-to-peer desks.
Regulatory breakthrough (about 30 percent). A 2026 Digital-Asset Bill, loosely modelled on the EU’s MiCA, introduces licensing tiers and token taxonomy while keeping—perhaps trimming—the current 30 percent tax.
Hard-ban shock (about 15 percent). A systemic scare, such as a stable-coin run, triggers an emergency RBI circular. The Supreme Court would likely stay the order, but exchanges could face months of paralysis.